Marcum Wealth’s Post

For the first time since the Federal Reserve's rate cut last week, the market is now pricing in a better-than 50% probability that the Fed will cut rates by an additional 50 basis points at the upcoming FOMC meeting on November 7. To break it down: a move to -151% reflects market expectations for rate cuts. The -100% figure indicates that the market has fully priced in a 25 bps cut, while the additional -51% points to a 50 bps cut being partially priced in. Negative percentages signal expectations of rate cuts, whereas positive percentages would indicate potential rate hikes. In this case, the market anticipates further easing, driven by economic conditions or dovish signals from the Fed. This shift highlights growing sentiment that the Fed will continue its accommodative stance to counteract economic headwinds. #fixedincome #valueinvestinting #investmentstrategies #investmentexpert #investment #stockmarket #stock #bond #corporatebond #highyieldbond #cashflow #assetmanagement #wealthmanagement #fixedincome #valueinvesting #investmentstrategy #investmentexpert #investment #stockmarket #stock #bond #corporatebond #highyieldbond #cashflow #assetmanagement #wealthmanagement

The debate between the market and the U.S. Federal Reserve revolves around differing predictions on interest rate cuts, with the Fed suggesting three cuts by 2024 and the marketing expecting six. However, historical discrepancies between forecasts and outcomes indicate uncertainty. Despite this, the market leans towards anticipating significant rate decreases, while the Fed remains cautious, waiting for stronger signals of inflation stabilization, providing favourable conditions for fixed income investors with high yields expected in the bond market. Read more of March’s fixed income perspectives commentary, written by Fidelity Portfolio Managers Jeff Moore and Michael Plage: https://ow.ly/fopj50R9BUL #FidelityCanada #institutionalinvesting #fixedincome

Morgan Stanley prediction : The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% next week, aligning with market expectations. However, due to persistent inflation and economic uncertainties, the Fed may signal a cautious approach toward additional cuts in 2025. This is a bonus time for Quants specialist - adjust models for rate-sensitive assets, factoring in a 0.25% cut and cautious 2025 outlook. Strategies may include yield curve shifts, volatility plays, sentiment-driven trades, sector rotation (e.g., tech, real estate), and USD pair adjustments for rate differentials and Fed signals. Will you do it as a forecast? #quantitative #trading #interestrate #federal #reserves https://lnkd.in/gdC_53Hf

#GeneMelamudCFP #InvestorsEdge Market participants shift their focus to the November FOMC meeting. While the growth backdrop has improved, expectations are for the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25%. CIO Larry Adam provides insight into this and other market-moving headlines in Up & Adam. #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialAdvisorLargo

Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is unlikely to see interest rates cut just yet, but will provide key insight into central bankers’ thoughts on changes in coming months, analysts predict. Indeed, the big question ahead of the event is whether Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s “slightly dovish tone [will] turn slightly hawkish,” as per Freedom Capital Markets strategist Jay Woods, with base interest currently at 5.5%. “Given recent sticky #inflation data, there could be a tone change that may go cautiously hawkish and provide the Fed some wiggle room if they had to mull a raise,” he said. February saw US inflation jump 3.2%, following a 3.1% rise in January, with the Fed’s ultimate target sitting lower at a 2% annual increase in consumer prices. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors http://ow.ly/iT8J105mx1v

The Fed’s 50 basis points (bps) rate cut wasn’t just a move—it was a message. Chair Powell has made it clear: the Fed remains focused on its dual mandate. Now, the real question for investors is whether they should stay where they are or take a step forward by adjusting their portfolios for what comes next. Read more from AB's Fixed Income Senior Portfolio Managers.

In late December last year, financial markets anticipated 6-7 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. US Fed Funds futures projected a drop in interest rates from 5.33% to 3.83% for the year. However, half a year later, these expectations have shifted dramatically. The market now predicts only 1-2 cuts, with the Fed rate expected to be at 4.96% by the end of 2024. The clear conclusion is that we lack clarity: while the trend toward rate cuts persists, the pace of these cuts remains highly uncertain. At ECP, we continue to avoid taking on excessive duration risk until we have more clarity. #ecplu #valueinvesting #equities #longterminvesting

Today, the FOMC voted unanimously to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 5.25–5.50%. This marks the sixth consecutive FOMC meeting with no change to the fed funds target and comes as no surprise to market participants who have pushed out expectations for initial Fed cuts. In the press conference following the meeting, Powell was balanced as usual but notably indicated that the Fed’s next move being a hike is “unlikely.” #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #Fed #InterestRates #LaborMarket #Inflation

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% and announced a slowdown in its balance sheet reduction, marking a significant pivot in its monetary strategy. Starting June 1, the Fed will lower the cap on maturing Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion monthly, while maintaining the $35 billion cap for mortgage-backed securities. This cautious approach reflects concerns over recent inflation trends and economic balancing efforts. With traders eyeing potential rate cuts as soon as November, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored that a rate hike is off the table for now. https://lnkd.in/d-QXP8tk #FederalReserve #EconomicPolicy #InterestRates #InflationControl #FinancialMarkets

Today, the #FOMC unanimously decided to cut the fed funds rate a quarter point (25 basis points) following the prior 50-basis-point cut made at the previous September meeting. ▶ Read the full update: https://lnkd.in/eHffaqnK The fed funds rate now sits in the range of 4.50%-4.75%. While the market was widely expecting one rate cut to occur during this meeting, the Fed’s path forward is unclear. #monetarypolicy #interestrates #FederalReserve