IE Behavioral Economics Club’s Post

Overconfidence Bias: A silent yet powerful force that drives us to overestimate our abilities, knowledge, and the accuracy of our predictions. It’s the reason we sometimes make bold decisions without fully considering the risks—whether it’s forecasting financial markets, making strategic moves in business, or even tackling a personal project. This bias often blinds us to uncertainty and limits our ability to see the full picture. But what causes overconfidence, and why does it have such a strong grip on our decision-making? By exploring the psychology behind this bias, we uncover the subtle ways it shapes our judgments, often leading to costly mistakes. Understanding overconfidence is the first step toward making smarter, more informed choices in a complex and unpredictable world.

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