HEDGIFY’s Post

🇦🇷🫘FAS USDA keeps Argentina soybean crop forecast at 51 MMT in 2024/25 MY (+1 MMT y/y), assuming good weather in the year ahead and due to increased soy planting at the expense of wheat and corn.  🔺Crush projected at 40 MMT (+0.5 MMT y/y), 🔺export 7.3 MMT (+2.2 MMT y/y),🔺 import at 4.8 MMT (-0.3 MMT y/y). 

🌾 According to USDA, as of 09 Jun, winter wheat harvest in the US is 12% done (+6% w/w), faster than LY (7%). G/E condition reported at 47%, down 2% w/w, and lower than expected. Spring wheat planting 98% done (4% w/w), with G/E condition at 72% (-2% w/w).

🇺🇸🌾As of 17 Nov, US winter wheat was 94% planted, in line with last year’s pace and the 5YA. Crop conditions improved to 49% in G/E vs 44% LW (48% LY). – USDA

📉 The global wheat market is under pressure due to a resurgence in money managers' bearish outlook, as highlighted in the latest Business Line article dated July 5, 2024. Key insights include: 🔍 Elevated production forecasts for the 2024-25 season, with output reaching 790.2 million tonnes. 📉 A decline in wheat prices and anticipated reduction in global wheat consumption. 🌾 The impact of critical updates such as the Russian wheat harvest and US winter wheat crop. 📊 Rising short positions in wheat markets, reflecting market sensitivity to abrupt price escalations. Stay informed on the latest trends and projections in the wheat market. Read the full article for more details. #WheatMarket #Agriculture #CommodityTrading #FoodSecurity #MarketTrends #WPPS Ajay Goyal Raj Kapoor

🇺🇸🌾According to USDA, as of 12 May, U.S. winter wheat condition unchanged w/w at 50% g/e, generally in line with trade expectations (51%), higher than LY (29%).  🌾🔺Spring wheat planting is 61% complete (+14% w/w), slightly below trade expectations (63%), but higher than LY (35%) and 5YA (48%).

July is the first month that the USDA estimates U.S. All Wheat production (Winter, Other Spring, and Durum). Over the last 35 years, 71% of the time, the USDA’s July All Wheat crop estimate has been above the average trade estimate. In the years that the crop was larger than expected, the median error was 1.8% (range 0.1%-6.2%).

Title: Altai Farmers Produce Top-Quality Wheat Despite Weather Challenges Fears of a drastic reduction in wheat production due to adverse summer weather conditions in the Altai region have largely been dispelled. According to data from the Altai branch of the Grain Quality Assessment Center, while wheat production has seen a slight 5% decline compared to 2023, the quality of the grain—especially winter wheat—has exceeded […] https://lnkd.in/ey4XJU4A

🌍 The June WASDE report shows a tough outlook for wheat. 🌾 Global stocks are down by 5.7M tons, mainly due to adverse weather in Russia, reducing production by 5M tons to 83M tons. 📉 Ukraine and the EU also face declines of 1.5M tons each. #GranidaNews #Agriculture #Wheat #WASDE #Commodities #GlobalTrade

Wheat Prices Surge Amid Declining U.S. Crop Quality and Global Climate Challenges The recent surge in wheat prices on October 29 has underscored the precarious situation facing wheat growers globally, as adverse weather conditions continue to threaten production in major wheat-exporting countries. The USDA’s Crop Progress report, released on October 27, highlights slow progress in U.S. wheat planting due to delays caused by challenging weather, while extended […] https://lnkd.in/eXB4QJNC

China has announced they will cancel a 240,000 tonne order for wheat???? 22 Mar 2024 — Reuters – Private exporters canceled sales of 264000 tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat that had been booked for delivery to China. The US Department of Agriculture has reported a significant shift in global grain trade dynamics, highlighted by the largest cancellation of American wheat purchases since 1999, totaling 504,000 tons. Initiated by China's withdrawal from a 240,000-ton shipment of American winter wheat on March 8, followed by another 264,000-ton cancellation on March 15, this trend is not limited to the US alone. China has also canceled or postponed orders of Australian wheat and Ukrainian corn, signaling a strategic pivot towards sourcing grain from cheaper and potentially more cooperative partners like Russia and Kazakhstan. This move suggests China's broader strategy to leverage current market conditions for lower grain prices. China has a long term view and understood there may be disruptions to trade as they ramp up pressure on Taiwan, they are disengaging from sources of supply of wheat and grains from Western Democracies. Worldwide grain exports from Australia, Canada and the USA will be competing for sales in a smaller range of markets. Will this have an adverse impact on Australia's grain markets? Ukraine has been a source and major supplier of grain to the Middle East and European Markets. Ukraine has exported 716,000 tonnes of grain and legumes since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year (July 2024-June 2025), up 2.6-fold from 276,000 tonnes a year previously, Ukrainian media reported with reference to the Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry. That is incredibly, Ukraine has in the midst of a catastrophic war increased production of grain by 2.6 times their previous output. Australian grain growers are also experiencing higher costs for fuel and fertiliser as energy costs have increased substantially. China has built networks of irrigation and dams and production now beginning to meet their domestic needs independently of international markets. Rice on the other hand is in short supply perhaps becaus eof the difficulty of bringing new sources of productive irrigated land on stream. In a crisis over the Taiwan strait / Taiwan invasion, China has prepared to be far more independent of international markets and prioritised the purchase of Russian grain products. These developments give us an insight into the strategy of the Chinese to replace imports of food where possible with domestic production and to reduce reliance on Western Democracies supply and trade. https://lnkd.in/gwAi4g_q