Guy Carpenter’s Post

The Earth has already warmed 1.5ºC since the industrial revolution. And get this: the Arctic has been heating up nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. All that heat is melting Arctic sea ice, glaciers, and the Greenland ice sheet. “Since 2002, Greenland lost 5,900 billion tons (gigatons) of ice,” notes the research team. “To put that into perspective, imagine if the entire state of Texas was covered in ice 26 feet thick.". From an article in Earth.com regarding the slowing of the AMOC the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Our paper , led by LEILA RAHIMI just got published in the American Geophysical Union’s journal Earth’s Future. The paper discusses on the hybrid approach of downscaling and bias correcting the climate parameters which captures high quantities. Also thanks to Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf , Nasrin Alamdari and others for all the support and guidance. https://lnkd.in/eesEQmDY

🌡️The Marine Heatwave Research Focus is a working group of WCRP-CLIVAR, chaired by Antonietta Capotondi and me, with the mandate of better understanding marine heatwaves globally.   🌡️We have just published a global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate. Among other things, we show how 2023 was unprecedented in terms of their occurrence globally (top two panels).   🌡️There are still open questions, particularly about coastal and subsurface marine heatwaves due to limited observations (the bottom panel shows their possible vertical structures), and many more about their prediction and projections…   🌡️Link for the complete study: https://lnkd.in/dQthSZUQ

I’m pleased to announce that the highly prestigious Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR)-Atmosphere has published our paper, which focuses on the very high resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations of the CMIP6 GCM ensemble over the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region, with a focus on climate hotspot Türkiye. This work is the first of its kind to provide CMIP6 GCM simulations over this region at a 4 km resolution. The two climate simulations established in this study, the historical run for 1994–2014 using ECMWF ERA5 and the future projection run for 2080–2100 under SSP58.5 scenario, offer hourly climatic outputs at 4 km, which enable us to examine far-future climate change and variability in greater detail. 

Something that those who live and work in the Arctic are seeing accelerate in what seems to be more and more every year. While this article gives a sense of a quicker change than previous forecasts the actual paper: https://lnkd.in/eAKWn7J7 provides the reader with a detailed overview of how the Arctic environment is changing and how rapidly - potentially not only changing the environment but how it is used by those there and those who may come to use it more in the future. https://lnkd.in/eQr93JS8

I’m pleased to announce that the highly prestigious Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR)-Atmosphere has published our paper, which focuses on the very high resolution (4 km) regional climate simulations of the CMIP6 GCM ensemble over the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region, with a focus on climate hotspot Türkiye. This work is the first of its kind to provide CMIP6 GCM simulations over this region at a 4 km resolution. The two climate simulations established in this study, the historical run for 1994–2014 using ECMWF ERA5 and the future projection run for 2080–2100 under SSP58.5 scenario, offer hourly climatic outputs at 4 km, which enable us to examine far-future climate change and variability in greater detail. 

In Memoriam: Remembering George Woodwell It is with great sadness that we announce that Dr. George M. Woodwell, a cornerstone in the realm of environmental science and a pivotal figure in the integration of ecological principles with systemic analyses, passed away on June 18, 2024, at the age of 95. His far-reaching impact on climate science through foundational research and advocacy reshaped our understanding of global environmental issues, from the dangers of DDT and nuclear radiation to the complexities of climate change. A testimony to his influence was his significant contribution to the first Congressional hearing on climate change in 1986, where he highlighted critical issues like permafrost thaw and forest conservation—themes that remain central to climate science today and resonate deeply within our field of System Dynamics through their systemic implications. Woodwell’s visionary approach led him to establish the Woods Hole Research Center, now the Woodwell Climate Research Center, reflecting his commitment to not only advancing scientific understanding but also implementing this knowledge in policymaking and international governance. His foundational role in creating key environmental organizations and contributing to the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change underscores the synergy between his work and System Dynamics. By emphasizing the importance of endogenous, complex dynamic systems, Woodwell’s legacy is indelibly linked to our field, underscoring a shared vision of a systems-oriented approach to understanding and addressing ecological and climatic challenges. 🔗 Memorial: https://ow.ly/Sb2v50SvTyu #SystemDynamics #systemsthinking #obituary

Discover how the Reef Authority, together with our science and management partners, assess the extent, severity and prevalence of coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef. From outer space to underwater, you will see the complex monitoring and reporting that happens before, during and after a coral bleaching event. Australian Institute of Marine Science Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water

The Arctic Seed Vault Shows the Flawed Logic of Climate Adaptation It’s smart to plan for the future. But the seed vault assumes that we know enough to plan effectively and that people will pay attention to what we know. History shows this is often not the case. The difficulties of the seed vault re­­­­mind us that the most important thing we can do right now is not to plan to re­­spond to climate disaster after it happens but to do everything in our power to prevent it while we still have that chance. #science #climatechange #environment # Svalbard #GlobalSeedVault #BiologicalLag