Federal Budget IQ’s Post

Federal Budget IQ is hard at work analyzing the early indicators for the FY25 appropriations endgame now that the elections are in the rear-view mirror and already looking at what the first Trump budget will look like. See the latest from Chauncey Goss #defense #defence #spaceforce #nuclear #missiledefense #fy25 #fy26 #defence #defense #appropriations #federalbudget #defenseindustry

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has initiated a review of the UK's defense to address increasing threats in the global landscape. The review aims to enhance UK homeland security, support Ukraine against Russia, and modernize the nuclear deterrent. Led by former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, the review will engage military experts and stakeholders to ensure Britain's defense readiness for the future. Defense Secretary John Healey emphasizes the need for improved accountability, innovation, and value for money in defense operations. The review seeks to make defense central to Britain's security and economic growth in the coming decade. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gApirgQy

Let's AVOID another infamous rum's-filled moment of "you fight with what you've got" bullet-dodge. Fund for Military READINESS! We may find ourselves in a state of extreme vulnerability in a matter of a few years, according to a growing consensus of experts. Our military readiness could be at its lowest point in decades just as China’s military in particular hits its stride. The U.S. Indo-Pacific commander released what I believe to be the largest list of unfunded items ever for services and combatant commands for next year’s budget, amounting to $11 billion. It requested funding for a raft of infrastructure, missile defense and targeting programs that would prove vital in a Pacific fight. China, on the other hand, has no such problems, as it accumulates the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal with a mix of other lethal cruise and attack missiles. Our military leaders are being forced to make impossible choices. The Navy is struggling to adequately fund new ships, routine maintenance and munition procurement; it is unable to effectively address all three. We recently signed a deal to sell submarines to Australia, but we’ve failed to sufficiently fund our own submarine industrial base, leaving an aging fleet unprepared to respond to threats. Two of the three most important nuclear modernization programs are underfunded and are at risk of delays. The military faces a backlog of at least $180 billion for basic maintenance, from barracks to training ranges. This projects weakness to our adversaries as we send service members abroad with diminished ability to respond to crises. Fortunately, we can change course. We can avoid that extreme vulnerability and resurrect American military might. America’s Military Is Not Prepared for War — or Peace

It seems that the concept of deterrence is misunderstood, while it is a concept which seeks to avoid war, it is the capability to establish the military conditions for a poisitive political outcome. “Professor Dean, who co-led the 2023 Defence Strategic Review Secretariat, repeatedly stresses the subs are primarily about deterrence. "[Like] the US … we are a status quo power. We have no desire to change the strategic order in the region and no desire to do so with force," he says. "If we can ensure that China and other countries remain convinced that they don't have a military overmatch, that there is a balance in that area, then they are far less likely to use military force to achieve political ends." https://lnkd.in/eC7gNsQj

Australia, the US and other allied nations must increase their defence budgets and military preparedness because of the “enormous peril” of the times we live in and China’s increased strategic co-operation with Russia, Iran and North Korea, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has warned. Dr Campbell delivered this striking assessment of Australia’s standing in the US: “There is no country held in as high regard as Australia. In recent years, Australia has been elevated to the absolute summit. Because of the Indo-Pacific, that is only going to grow over time. “We’ve just now, with the help of Australia, had the biggest uptick in investment in our submarine program since the Rickover navy (Admiral Hyman Rickover, father of the US nuclear navy, retired in 1982). We now better understand, through AUKUS, that we need to polish what is the jewel in our defence industrial effort, which is our (nuclear) submarine program.” The other striking challenge he nominated for the future of the alliance was the need to sell the alliance to young people who did not automatically understand the defining experiences of World War II and the period immediately after. https://lnkd.in/g34WUJB4

An Investigation is ongoing by the U.S. Department of Defense #DoD and #FBI to determine the Source of several Top Secret Documents related to the Israeli Retaliatory Strike against Iran, that were recently Leaked, appearing on Telegram Channels linked to the #Iranian-Backed Militias as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (#IRGC). (* In Comments ) According to a Source, it is believed the Documents were likely to have been Leaked #Online by a Member of the U.S. Military; similar to the Leak of several Documents on the War in #Ukraine which occurred in April of 2023, which was linked to a Airman in the Massachusetts Air National Guard #InsideJob #CounterIntelligence #FalseFlagOps #Leaks The #intelligence report suggests that Israel may be on the brink of launching a preemptive strike, possibly targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, which have long been a source of concern for both Israel and the broader international community. The combination of missile preparations, high-level military exercises, and strategic positioning has led to widespread speculation that an Israeli offensive against Iran is imminent. If this intelligence proves accurate, the repercussions could be far-reaching, potentially triggering a broader conflict in the Middle East. https://lnkd.in/dXs3GdPx The timing of these actions is particularly sensitive, as regional tensions remain high amid #Iran’s continued nuclear ambitions, its influence in proxy conflicts, and the fragile geopolitical situation across the Middle East.

Far from Ukraine and Gaza, as the Group of 7 wealthy democracies gathers in Italy to discuss a range of old, entrenched challenges, the nature of American power is being transformed across the region that Washington sees as crucial for the century to come: the Asia-Pacific. Here, America no longer presents itself as the confident guarantor of security, a trust-us-we’ve-got-this superpower. The terrain is too vast, China’s rise too great a threat. So the United States has been offering to be something else — an eager teammate for military modernization and tech development. #TSICommentaries #TSIWeekly20240609 #TSIUSChina #TSIIndoPacificStrategy #TSISouthChinaSea #USChina #USChinaRelations #SouthChinaSea #IndoPacificStrategy

America’s deterrence crisis is growing. The issue isn’t military strength, but a failure to understand adversaries' motives. U.S. deterrence must move beyond displays of power and focus on strategic alignment with the goals of rivals like Russia and China. Adapt or risk further destabilization. #ForeignPolicy #Geopolitics

"What few, if any, defense theorists foresaw was the broadening of war that the past few years has witnessed, as the array of features that shape conflict expanded. What theorists call “the continuum of conflict” has changed. In an earlier era, one might have seen the terrorism and insurgency of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis as inhabiting the low end of the spectrum, the armies waging conventional warfare in Ukraine as residing in the middle, and the nuclear threats shaping Russia’s war and China’s growing arsenal as sitting at the high end. Today, however, there is no sense of mutual exclusivity; the continuum has returned but also collapsed. In Ukraine, “robot dogs” patrol the ground and autonomous drones launch missiles from the sky amid trench warfare that looks like World War I—all under the specter of nuclear weapons. In the Middle East, combatants have combined sophisticated air and missile defense systems with individual shooting attacks by armed men riding motorcycles. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese and Philippine forces face off over a sole dilapidated ship while the skies and seas surrounding Taiwan get squeezed by threatening maneuvers from China’s air force and navy." https://lnkd.in/dKpgtKNB

"According to these officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, and its naval forces as well. Meanwhile, the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands." "The shift they envision would involve “significantly and substantially downsizing America’s security role — stepping back instead of being the primary provider of combat power in Europe, somebody who provides support only in times of crisis” "Another part of the emerging Trump game plan is a two-tier NATO system. That idea, first proposed by another senior former Trump administration official, retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, means that member countries that have not yet met the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense “wouldn’t enjoy the defense largess and security guarantee of the United States,”.....members of the Trump foreign-policy brain trust noted that the language in Article 5 is flexible and does not require any member to respond with military force." "Altogether, Trump’s new approach in these areas would amount to a revolution in NATO’s affairs — one that many critics say Europe is wholly incapable of accomplishing in the foreseeable future." "The U.S. is by far the largest contributor to NATO operations, spending about $860 billion on defense that represented 68 percent of the total expenditure of the NATO countries in 2023. That is well over 10 times more than that of Germany, the second largest-spending country. A substantial portion of that U.S. expenditure, which amounts to about 3.5 percent of U.S. GDP, goes to the defense of Europe though the Pentagon refuses to divulge publicly how much, says Jeremy Shapiro, research director for the European Council on Foreign Relations." https://lnkd.in/ekvgPT9p