Eisler Capital’s Post

This week's Markets in a Minute from RBC Brewin Dolphin Follow the video link: https://lnkd.in/eEpW2CRF In this week’s video, Guy Foster, Chief Strategist, discusses fresh U.S. economic data and the prospect of a soft landing. Plus, Janet Mui, Head of Market Analysis, analyses inflation data and the likelihood of interest rate cuts in Europe and the UK. #marketsinaminute #markets #BrewinDolphin #VFSInternational

What does 2024's second quarter have in store for the global economy, and how will various assets perform? In our first issue of "PERSPECTIVES: Economic and asset class outlook", we give our forecasts for equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies. Economic momentum around the world is expected to continue, but not evenly across regions, and lagging effects from monetary tightening may yet come into play. Earnings growth is set to become the main driver for stock markets again. And major central banks are likely to start cutting rates in near synchronicity, limiting foreign-exchange volatility. You can read the full issue here: https://lnkd.in/eEQ6yrku #privatebanking #wealthmanagement Deutsche Bank (When investing, your capital may be at risk)

Our Second Quarter 2024 Market Review is now available on our website. Here is a preview of the report: "Wall Street got off to a slow start to begin the second quarter of 2024. Investors spent the quarter watching economic data, trying to gauge whether the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates. The latest economic data gave some indication that inflationary pressures may be scaling back.” https://lnkd.in/e8KEGaFP 

Financial markets are beginning to respond to the results of the election despite the remaining uncertainty over future policy decisions and economic implications. Though Wall Street economists began 2024 with a pessimistic outlook, both consumer spending and the labor market slowed more gradually than expected. Read this and more in our December Monthly Market Commentary: https://lnkd.in/gR5HYkAz

In this week’s Mid-Week Market Update, the 3 key points are the market focus on the remarks from the FOC and Chairman Powell, the economic projections and the no change in the interest rate policy. Watch: http://spr.ly/6001kNvGf

In this week’s Mid-Week Market Update, the 3 key points are the market focus on the remarks from the FOC and Chairman Powell, the economic projections and the no change in the interest rate policy. Watch: http://spr.ly/6001kNvGf

Thank you Stephen Sedgwick and Arabile Gumede for the great chat this morning at CNBC. Here are few points on the topics I covered: - We continue to believe that the last mile of the inflation fight will be difficult although US CPI was 0.1% YoY lower than expectations. There has been some softening in the job market with unemployment coming up slightly and less job openings, and also declines in service sector activity, but not enough to consider the U.S. economy on the risk of an imminent recession. - We anticipate the Fed will remain cautious. We still consider likely the scenario of no cuts from the Fed in 2024 and rates kept at the 5.25-5.5% range. The data on PCE and shelter in particular will be very important. The market is more dovish and this could benefit USD denominated assets for foreign investors. - The euro area has started to grow again with real GDP up 0.3% QoQ in Q1. We expect from the ECB 2 cuts by year end to reach 3.25%, with headline inflation going back to target by year end and growth around 0.8% for 2024. But markets are pricing this already. - Following the announcement of the French elections, French – Bund spreads widened and came down again after the results but still quite attractive at 65bps. I think this create a good opportunity on French bonds for a long-term investor, but also on a more short-term basis with the expectation of spreads coming back down. I think market are overpricing the impact on debt sustainability following the elections’ results. PS: I clearly still struggle with acronyms. At 2.30 in the clip, I mention "CPE". I of course meant PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) 🙈 #VanguardInsights #assetallocation

Last week will provide a good case study into why predicting short-term market moves is so difficult. 🔍 Weekly Market Review: Key Economic Developments Stay ahead with our latest market insights! This week, we analyse the Federal Reserve’s interest rate changes, the Bank of England’s policy decisions, and the mixed economic signals impacting global markets. Remember, it’s not about timing the markets, but rather the time spent in the markets that counts. Read our WeekWatch update here: https://ow.ly/Tj6250SS6fq #marketinsights #markets #stockmarkets #financialoutlook #financialmarkets #financialknowledge