Egan-Jones’ Post

📉 China's latest stimulus measures may not be enough to reverse its economic slowdown, with economists calling for deeper structural reforms. Without bold action, weak domestic demand could lead to competitive pressures globally as Chinese companies offer low export prices. 🏘️ While recent policies targeted the housing market with reduced mortgage rates and funding support, experts argue these measures fall short. Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, highlights that China’s challenges are structural, not cyclical, requiring targeted fiscal reforms. 💡 Louis Kuijs, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, echoes these concerns, stressing the need for broader support to developers and measures to boost consumer confidence. The coming months will reveal whether China pivots toward structural reforms to avert deeper economic troubles. Kimberley Long reports Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eYpWq2EM

Can China come back from this? China’s economy is facing a critical turning point. Rhodium Group's latest report "China’s Economy Has Peaked. Can Beijing Redefine Its Goals?" outlines the challenges facing the country. Here are 5 key takeaways from the report: 1) China’s growth model has hit a dead end, leading to a structural slowdown. 2) GDP growth rates may be overstated, especially post-property sector collapse. 3) Alternative growth models may not fully replace lost momentum. 4) Local governments face a debt crisis, risking defaults. 5) Significant reforms and recapitalization of banks are needed but remain absent. China's long-standing credit and investment-led growth model has reached its limits, contributing to a structural slowdown. Official GDP figures may overstate the true economic situation, particularly as the collapse of the once-booming property sector continues to drag down overall performance. Beijing is exploring alternative growth strategies, such as advanced manufacturing and consumption-led growth. However, these efforts may not fully offset the losses from the property market. Additionally, China’s financial system is burdened with bad loans and local government debt, limiting its ability to support new initiatives. Want to learn more? Check out the full report 👇 #China #ChinaBusiness #GlobalBusiness

#Opinion | China's aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus aims to revive its economy, but with Q2 2024 GDP growth slowing to 4.7%, challenges remain. Structural issues like low consumption, demographic shifts, and a ballooning debt could hinder recovery. Experts stress the need for reform to boost household demand. Read more about China's economic complexities in Janak Raj's insightful piece. https://mybs.in/2dZo0K3

#ChinaNews - The issuance of 1 trillion yuan (approximately $137 billion) in special treasury bonds by the Chinese central government is a significant fiscal move aimed at supporting the country's economy, and highlights that the Chinese Leadership is well aware of China's current economic perils, (unlike many others blinded by investments, nationalism, or lack of free press). Issuance of these special treasury bonds has only occurred three other times over the past 25 years -- during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the 2007 global financial crisis, and during the COVID pandemic. As the impact of this bond issuance starts to diminish, China may likely face pressure to implement more challenging economic reforms, as China's outlook for economic growth looks significantly diminished (at best) going into 2025 and onwards, as underlying issues like an aging population with youth unemployment, overleveraged property developers, and increasing amounts of state owned non-performing loans remain unresolved. While the bond issuance might, I repeat might, provide some immediate relief and stimulate economic activity in the short term, it does not address the fundamental structural issues of the Chinese economy, which give every indication of reversing the country's gains from over the past two decades in the longterm. Meanwhile, China is again upping its military spending. #china #xijinping #ccp #economy #economics #globalaffairs https://lnkd.in/gzjddQuD

What is happening in China? China’s 1-year government bond yield has fallen below 1% for the first time since 2008. This means that China’s 1-year yield has HALVED this year as their economic outlook as deteriorated. Falling yields have raised some concerns that China’s economy may be heading into a recession. Meanwhile, the Chinese government continues to roll out their largest wave of stimulus since the pandemic. The Chinese economy is rapidly slowing.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Yellen says China is too big to export its way to rapid growth U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Friday that China is too large to try to export its way to rapid growth and would benefit by reducing excess industrial capacity that is pressuring other economies. Yellen said in remarks to an American Chamber of Commerce during a visit to China that she understands that Beijing's direct and indirect government support for manufacturing is linked to domestic development objectives. 🗣But Yellen said this "is currently leading to production capacity that significantly exceeds China's domestic demand, as well as what the global market can bear." Premier Li Qiang in March set an ambitious growth target of 5% for 2024, fueled in part by more investment in new high-technology sectors. The IMF currently forecasts China's 2024 real GDP growth at 4.6%, falling to 4.1% in 2025. #US #China

China is expected to announce much-anticipated steps to boost its flagging economy Friday at the end of this week’s meeting of its legislature. Analysts say bold, multi-trillion yuan measures are needed to reinvigorate the world’s second largest economy, which has yet to bounce back fully from the COVID-19 pandemic. #TSINews #TSIWeekly20241103 #TSIChinaPolitics #ChinaEconomy #TSIChinaEcoSo #ChinaPolitics #ChinaStimulusPackage

China's economic landscape is currently marked by a blend of challenges and strategic shifts. Recent data indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth, with November figures rising by only 3%, down from October's 4.8%, highlighting persistent fragility in domestic demand. In response, Chinese leaders are signaling readiness to bolster the economy through increased government spending and relaxed monetary policies, aiming to counteract these internal challenges and external pressures, such as potential tariffs from the incoming U.S. administration. Notably, the youth unemployment rate has declined for the third consecutive month, reaching 16.1% in November, down from 17.1% in October, suggesting some positive momentum in the labor market. However, the property sector continues to face significant hurdles, with a prolonged crisis impacting broader economic stability. As China navigates these complexities, a critical question arises: If Schrödinger's cat were both an economic boom and a recession, how would China's policymakers observe and influence its state without collapsing the superposition? This post was generated by my custom-built personal agent, powered by LLMs and designed to operate my computer. If you're curious about how it works, feel free to ask!

China's economy, once a powerhouse of rapid growth, has been facing a significant slowdown due to a variety of factors. The real estate market, a key growth engine, is in crisis with major developers like Evergrande and Country Garden struggling with defaults and unfinished projects, leading to a broader economic drag. Additionally, declining global demand and geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., have weakened China's export sector, while countries diversify supply chains away from China, further impacting its manufacturing dominance. Compounding these issues is China's demographic challenge, with a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce due to decades of the one-child policy. Rising debt levels among local governments, state-owned enterprises, and companies also pose a risk to future investments, as China's growth model has heavily relied on debt-driven spending in infrastructure and real estate. The regulatory crackdown on the tech sector and lingering effects of strict COVID-19 lockdowns have further dampened business confidence and consumer spending. The government has responded with stimulus measures, such as interest rate cuts and support for the housing sector, but recovery remains uncertain. High youth unemployment and slowing innovation indicate deeper structural issues. To reignite growth, China may need to implement reforms beyond short-term fixes, focusing on reducing debt, restructuring its industries, and addressing demographic challenges to sustain long-term economic stability.

China's Economy Shows Signs of Stabilization Amid Stimulus Efforts https://lnkd.in/dgT-J9fG China's recent economic indicators show signs of stabilization following the government's latest stimulus efforts. The manufacturing and housing sectors are showing tentative signs of recovery, suggesting a positive shift in the economy. #Chinaeconomy #consumerconfidence #economicrecovery #governmentstimulus #housingmarket #industrialproduction #manufacturingsector