EbonFX’s Post

Good morning. USD Quiet market activity into the end of last week should continue today with the US and Japan both being on holiday. The themes still playing out are - US yields and how much they will cut this year, clarity around how much stimulus the Chinese government are prepared to deliver and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Coming up on Thursday this week we get US Retail Sales and the ECB expected to cut 25bp - apart from that it appears to be a fairly quiet one on the data front. AUD A$ had a range of 0.6725/0.6759. The Aussie continues to trade quietly in a tight range. The main event locally this week will be the Australian employment data due out on Thursday, with expectation of the headline number around +25k. On Wednesday we get the NZ CPI . Think we continue to trade quietly this week with influence to come from any China stimulus news and moves in US interest rates. Suggested range 0.6725/75. AUDJPY 100.25/75 AUDEUR 0.6150/80 AUDGBP 0.5150/70 AUDNZD 1.1025/75 ....and thats a wrap! Cheers, Andy.

Mixed economic data is released this morning, -- Australia's Monthly CPI rose by 3.8% YoY, easing from the 4.0% posted in May; -- Australia’s Retail Sales climb 0.5% MoM in June after increasing by 0.6% in May vs. 0.2% expected; -- China's NBS Manufacturing PMI eases to 49.4 in July vs. 49.3 expected; As we expected, the upbeat Australian Retail Sales and Chinese PMIs are ignored. In our view, this #CPI report shows the #inflation is still stubborn while it is not hot enough to push #RBA trigger the next #ratehike. Market has raised expectations that the interest rates will be unchanged at next policy meeting (next week). As a result, AUD/USD breaches 0.6500 to hit three-month lows. However, the downside might be limited as the USD faces challenges ahead of the #Fed upcoming interest rate decision. Signs of cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions in US are further fueling expectations of multiple #ratecuts by the Fed this year. For more details, please reach out by support@ihfx.com.au #ihfx #fx #payment #aud #usd #treasury #hedging #forecast

TELETRADEsupport@teletradepartners.com Affiliate ID 27533741 #Affiliatemarketing Reserve Bank of Australia officials will be watching Wednesday's inflation data for any upside surprises, given that February's data will reflect more changes in the prices of a number of services, which have been falling at a slower pace than goods. The figures may emphasise the need for the RBA to remain in wait-and-see mode for a little longer before proceeding to cut rates as the economy slows. Economists expect the annual inflation rate to rise to 3.5% in February from 3.4% in January. In Japan, Tokyo will release inflation data on Friday, but it may be met with less excitement after the Bank of Japan finally raised interest rates last week for the first time in 17 years.

Market reflections Australia -Australia’s CPI hits 3-year low, easing to 2.7% in August. -RBA holds cash rate, flags inflation risks amid slower economic rebound. -Manufacturing PMI hits 3-year low as services sector growth slows. -Employment surges in August amid mixed trends. Global -US Fed cuts rates by 50 bps to 4.75%-5%, signalling further easing ahead. -Germany's manufacturing PMI & Ifo Business Climate both fell in September. -Japan's inflation hits 3% in August, prompting the Bank of Japan to maintain steady rates. -UK retail sales rise 1% in August; Bank of England maintains 5% rate amid inflation concerns. Read more here: https://ow.ly/RVGk50TxOGb #GDP #Australia #US #China #economy #market

*Global bits* Asian stocks weak amid Trump tariff worries; yen firm New Zealand cuts rates by 50 bps, flags further easing Sri Lanka launches long-awaited bond swap in key step to emerge from default Post election euphoria lifts US consumer confidence to 16-month high US new home sales tumble to two-year low in October US monthly house prices rise strongly in September Gloom spreads across UK retailers after budget tax rises, CBI says Fed minutes may show start of debate over how far to go on rate cuts Japan's steady service inflation keeps alive BOJ rate-hike prospects Vietnam PM hopes U.S. will recognise country as market economy Gold trades in tight range ahead of US inflation data China's Oct industrial profits extend decline on weak demand.

While the week ahead may seem a bit quieter, keep an eye on crucial updates from the US 🇺🇸, alongside inflation figures from Canada 🇨🇦 and Australia 🇦🇺 and manufacturing insights from China 🇨🇳. Stay on top of developments and keep your trading strategies up-to-date! TUE, JUN 25 7:30 AM CT - Canadian CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Trimmed CPI y/y 9:00 AM CT - US CB Consumer Confidence 8:30 PM CT - Australian CPI y/y THU, JUN 27 Bank Holiday in New Zealand 4:30 AM CT - BOE Gov Bailey Speaks 7:30 AM CT - US Final GDP q/q and Unemployment Claims 9:00 AM CT - US Pending Home Sales m/m FRI, JUN 28 7:30 AM CT - Canadian GDP m/m 7:30 AM CT - US Core PCE Price Index m/m 9:00 AM CT - US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment SAT, JUN 29 8:30 PM CT - Chinese Manufacturing PMI SUN, JUN 30 All Day - French Legislative Election

Week in Review - 22/07/2024 • JSE reaches new record high. • SARB MPC kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25%. • May retail sales figures 0.8% YoY vs 0.6% forecast. • South African tourism grew by 9.7% between January and May compared to a year ago. • National Treasury expects $2.4 billion in inflows from a climate pact. • Government re-committed to Operation Vulindlela – with focus expanding to water provisions. • SA New Home Affairs minister to “fix” skilled worker visa regime. • Bell Equipment and Sasfin rocket as delisting from the JSE confirmed. • Zuma skips ANC hearing over SA election rebellion. • Anglo plans to cut more diamond output amid slow recovery. • US PPI June 2.6% YoY versus 2.4% May 2024. • UK CPI steady at 2% versus expected 1.9%. • ECB keeps interest rate at 3.75%. • US retail sales flat in June 2024. • US industrial production for June 2024 came in higher than expectations, climbing by 0.6%. • Canada CPI decelerates to 2.7% in line with consensus. • China`s Q2 2024 GDP weaker than expected at 4.7% YoY. • China retail sales 2.0 % versus estimates of 3.4% . • High-flying chipmakers see worst plunge since 2020. • Gold extends record rally on Fed rate-cut bets.

Crucial events expected in the Forex world this week:  • The German ZEW Index is forecasted to drop from 3.6 to -1. The next announcement will be on Tuesday, October 15, 2024. • The ECB expects inflation to hit target by 2025, with gradual rate cuts amid 2024 volatility. The next announcement will be on Thursday, October 17, 2024. • UK retail sales rose by 1% in August 2024, following a 0.7% growth in July. The next announcement will be on Friday, October 18, 2024.

US GDP Out Today - MI250424 Just after lunch today we see the US release their preliminary GDP number. Analysts are expecting quarter one growth of 2.5%. That's the headline that traders will be discussing today. Other news stories to focus on in the next 24 hours include a consumer confidence reading from the UK and the Bank of Japan interest rate decision in the early hours of Friday. For the latter economists are predicting a further 0.1% hike to 0.1%. This had a big effect on the Japanese Yen last month. From a GBP point of view the Pound continues its recovery against most major currencies in what looks to be technical trading. Business news looks at the figures reported by Sainsburys earlier today where strong food sales have pushed their profits. Economic calendar US: 13:30 GDP Report UK: Friday 00:01 Gfk Consumer Confidence JPN: Friday 00:30 BoJ Interest Rate Decision #currencytrading hashtag#fx hashtag#london hashtag#relocation hashtag#livingabroad hashtag#regencyfx hashtag#entrepreneurminds hashtag#entrepreneurlife hashtag#marketdata hashtag#gbp hashtag#londonlife hashtag#costofliving hashtag#internationalpayments hashtag#networking hashtag#luxurylifestyle hashtag#currencyupdate hashtag#fx hashtag#currency hashtag#strategy hashtag#expat hashtag#currencytransfer hashtag#exchangerate hashtag#usd hashtag#eur hashtag#euro hashtag#bankofengland hashtag#interestrates hashtag#inflation hashtag#retail hashtag#FED hashtag#federalreserve

FX Weekly: Trive’s Week Ahead Insights: Stay informed with our detailed analysis and projections. Check out the latest trends and key levels in today's report. The highlights include a plethora of US data, including NFP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, PCE, GDP and Quarterly Refunding. We also see the release of the UK's October Budget, the Bank of Japan rate decision and the Japan LDP election. EZ Flash CPI will also be eyed, as will EZ GDP. Aussie CPI and Chinese NBS PMIs are also in focus. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/gdXWYf2e #WeeklyOutlook #TriveInternational #NeverStandStill