Dr. Kelvin Mote’s Post

Tomorrow, Tuesday, December 10, 2024, from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. ET, the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defense initiative will host a hybrid fireside chat featuring former Congresswoman Jane Harman and former Ambassador Eric Edelman, the co-chairs of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy (NDS). The discussion will focus on the Commission’s key findings and recommendations, which was established by Congress to assess the 2022 NDS and identify the most pressing national security challenges facing the United States. In their conversation, Harman and Edelman will delve into the Commission’s report, which emphasizes the growing threats posed by China and Russia and the need for the United States to adopt a “Multiple Theater Force Construct.” This approach is designed to defend the homeland, deter adversaries, and, if necessary, defeat simultaneous threats across the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. With a new administration on the horizon, the Commission’s insights are crucial in shaping the future of US defense policy and the next National Defense Strategy. Don’t miss this opportunity to hear from two of the leading figures in defense policy as they share their perspectives on the future of US defense in an increasingly complex global environment. Register here: https://bit.ly/3BiHnmI #ForwardDefense #DefenseStrategy #NDS #ScowcroftCenter

This a great read and gives a pretty grave assessment. "The United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. The trends are getting worse, not better." "Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions. DoD is operating at the speed of bureaucracy when the threat is approaching wartime urgency." "U.S. industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict." "The DoD workforce and the all-volunteer force provide an unmatched advantage. However, recruiting failures have shrunk the force and raise serious questions about the all-volunteer force in peacetime, let alone in major combat. The civilian workforces at DoD and in the private sector also face critical shortfalls." "The Joint Force is at the breaking point of maintaining readiness today. Adding more burden without adding resources to rebuild readiness will cause it to break." https://lnkd.in/ggYyQ4nm

I've read several news articles this week summarizing a report published by Rand and conducted by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. In each news article I found at least one statement that I believe incorrectly interpreted the report's findings. If this is a topic you are interested in, I encourage you to read (or speed read) the Rand report itself. Read the summary, chapters 1 and 2 for sure, then whatever else is of interest. Some will say it sensationalizes global US military risk. But at a minimum, its good background on the geo-political / geo-military international construct the US finds itself in. Just skip the news articles; read the report.

Congress established the Commission on the National Defense Strategy to examine and make recommendations about the US National Defense Strategy. The Commission's report highlights that the US is currently facing its most challenging global environment with severe ramifications since the Cold War. Unfortunately, trends are worsening, not improving. The report emphasizes the need for an "integrated deterrence" that is not being practiced today. To address these challenges effectively, a comprehensive "all elements of national power" approach is essential to coordinate and leverage resources across various sectors. Additionally, the Commission suggests that Congress should rescind the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act spending caps. Instead, real growth for fiscal year 2025 defense and nondefense national security spending should be provided, falling within the range recommended by the 2018 NDS Commission. It is imperative to align resources cohesively across the Department of Defense, the executive branch, the private sector, civil society, and US allies and partners for a robust and effective national defense strategy.

The Commission of the National Defense Strategy calls for "urgent and major change" and "fundamental alterations to the way DoD operates..." Established by Congress to review and assess the 2022 National Defense Strategy, the Commission has presented its report, including recommendations: "The United States faces the most challenging global environment with the most severe ramifications since the end of the Cold War. The trends are getting worse, not better." "Fundamental shifts in threats and technology require fundamental change in how DoD functions. DoD is operating at the speed of bureaucracy when the threat is approaching wartime urgency." "U.S. industrial production is grossly inadequate to provide the equipment, technology, and munitions needed today, let alone given the demands of great power conflict." "Congress should pass a supplemental appropriation to begin a multiyear investment in the national security innovation and industrial base. Additionally, Congress should revoke the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act spending caps and provide real growth for fiscal year 2025 defense and nondefense national security spending..." Full report at the link. #defenseindustry #freedomsforge #defensetech #defenseinnovation https://lnkd.in/exiK--xg

Key quotes from the recently released bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy. The alarm lights are flashing red. We have to wake up as a nation and back words with action. While past administrations talked about pivots to Asia they did not back it up - the latest defense budget shrank in real terms. Weakness invites aggression. "We are not confident that the U.S. military would succeed in a regional conflict against China." "China is in fact outpacing U.S. defense production and growth in force size and, increasingly, in force capability and is almost certain to continue to do so." "The 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission noted that “the security and wellbeing of the US are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America’s military superiority ... has eroded to a dangerous degree.” In our review, we find that the situation has deteriorated since the 2018 Commission’s report." "We believe that there is a high probability that the next war would be fought across multiple theaters, would involve multiple adversaries, and likely would not be concluded quickly." "The Commission finds that the U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) is unable to meet the equipment, technology, and munitions needs of the United States and its allies and partners." "The U.S. public are largely unaware of the dangers the United States faces or the costs (financial and otherwise) required to adequately prepare. They do not appreciate the strength of China and its partnerships or the ramifications to daily life if a conflict were to erupt." "A bipartisan “call to arms” is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11." "The United States is still failing to act with the urgency required, across administrations and without regard to governing party." https://lnkd.in/eFfZck-N.

Important report on National Defense Strategy. Thanks Becca Wasser for sharing and your important work! #defensetech #nationalsecurity

The Commission on the National Defense Strategy released its final report, and it is a must-read. I couldn't agree more with the assessment that the U.S. is facing threats greater than any time since World War II and more complex than the Cold War, when it required our military to be able to execute a two-war strategy.    The Commission’s Chairwoman Jane Harman said, “We believe there needs to be fundamental change in the way the Pentagon and government agencies do business, plus a robust incorporation of technology and the tech sector, and full embrace of the capabilities of our partners and allies.”   We need to update the National Defense Strategy and force sizing approach to be able to credibly deter conflicts; if deterrence fails, our military needs to be able to fight and win at least two major theatre conflicts on a near simultaneous basis, as I have advocated for consistently. The American taxpayers and our warfighters deserve better results for the dollars we spend (and get more bang for the buck). It's essential we upgrade the strategy, and the Pentagon needs to spend its dollars smarter.   https://lnkd.in/e53KbH6K

"The next administration’s National Defense Strategy should prioritize the challenge posed by China, shifting away from Europe and the Middle East to focus more on deterrence and defense in the Indo-Pacific," writes Senior Fellow Kelly Grieco for our #PresidentialInbox series. 📝Read the full memo below https://lnkd.in/drid8EBU

Public and private sector experts came together to discuss the evolving intelligence landscape at Baird’s 7th Annual Defense & Government Conference. We outline key takeaways the discussion, including perspectives from the intelligence community and threat intelligence industry leaders. https://lnkd.in/ghDYdKxW