Context Nature, PBC reposted this
Today we publish analysis that shows nature degradation will wipe billions of pounds off of UK GDP and threaten financial resilience. Intuitively we know that the continued degradation of nature harms our collective prosperity, but this is the first time it has been quantified. Full report, synopsis, press release and supportive quotes here: https://lnkd.in/efncmJej Over the last year, I have had the absolute privilege of working with Dr Nicola Ranger of the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford Institute, Tom Oliver from the University of Reading, and Joanna Wolstenholme from UNEP-WCMC and the team at National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) on this analysis. The results are beyond what we imagined, and they’re already happening. The degradation to UK's nature may have a greater impact on our GDP than the Global Financial Crisis in the coming decade, with a 3% hit by the late 2020s alone. Our exposure to international nature-related risks could also cost us 6% off of GDP. And the risk of an antimicrobial resistance-driven pandemic increases, may result in a loss off our GDP greater than that experienced during COVID-19. Preliminary evidence also suggest in this report that our banks are vulnerable. If there is one message to take from this report it is this: nature cannot wait. We have to swiftly transition our economic and financial system to one that values and invests in our natural environment. A huge thanks to Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE, Carlos Martín Tornero, Martin Booth, Neha Dutt and David Craig for their input, and all those who shared supportive quotes and fed into the research. And to the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation and European Climate Foundation for their generous support. I look forward to putting the recommendations into action, and working together on next steps.
Thanks for posting Helen Avery. Wider critical study suggesting the impact of nature degradation on financial resilience country by country hopefully can be a part of accelerating investment in "nature", i.e. the report's recommendation in 7.2 "early action ... to begin to price in and manage nature-related risks and impacts will deliver benefits". Reading this in conjunction with the UN Environment Programme report on UK Nature Risk Quantification - https://lnkd.in/etVkU8TG - where it is outlined that the dependencies of UK banks and insurers’ financial assets on ecosystem services are currently neglected in policies and decision-making processes, then there's work to be done to convert thinking and studies into effective action.
Thanks for sharing this crucial report! Helen Avery alarming to see the quantified impacts of nature degradation on the UK's GDP. This really highlights the urgent need for sustainable economic reforms. Looking forward to the next steps! 🌿💼 Felix Arroyo Pujol Monica Rico #ESG
The report provides a cery detailed guide into risk analysis, the methodology and the various stress testing options. Thank tou for this informative guide.
Good work Helen Avery and team. This is such important, systemic work. We will definitely be taking these insights and recommendations into the PBII Natural Capital roundtable with investors next week (wiht The Good Economy) and really hope to see you/Amy there.
This is astounding. Has there been any study on UKs GNP over the years? Will be interested to know.
A huge thank you to Rhian-Mari Thomas OBE for articulating a clear need for this report, to you Helen Avery for your incredible efforts in pulling it all together and to all the brilliant delivery partners for their ground-breaking research and findings.
Big congrats to you and your teams - fantastic research that sheds a light on such a vital topic!
I'll keep this in mind
Great report! Well done to all involved. We look forward to engaging on this topic at our PBII Natural Capital Roundtable next week 🌿
Co-Chair TNFD. Triple Private Equity IC Chair. Founder and former CEO Refinitiv. Financial industry advisor and investor - technology, data, sustainability businesses
8moGreat piece of work and congratulations Helen Avery Dr Nicola Ranger on estimating the impact of nature risk to the UK economy and UK banks. It is the year-on-year degradation and change which can be as impactful as sudden shocks, and this is what we are experiencing today. The report shows the nVAR from just 5 five sample ecosystem services as an example: water, pollination, ventilation (air pollution), soil quality and water quality and estimates nVAR from 2 Billion Euros and in one bank over 8 billion Euros.