Carnegie India’s Post

🇯🇴 🇸🇾🇮🇷🇱🇧🇮🇱 A potential military escalation between #Iran and #Israel places #Jordan in a challenging position, as it must balance its vocal pro-#Palestinian stance with its obligations under a nearly four-decade-old peace treaty with Israel. King Abdullah II aims to maintain this balance to preserve more than five decades of internal stability, which was last seriously challenged in 1970 during a civil war that resulted in the expulsion of the Palestine Liberation Organization to Lebanon.#PLO A significant portion of Jordan's population of 10 million people is of #Palestinian origin, while the rest are primarily descendants of tribes present when the kingdom was established as a British protectorate in 1921. Members of these tribes form the backbone of the security forces and government, but widespread anger over Israeli operations in Gaza resonates across the population. The 1994 peace treaty obliges #Jordan and #Israel to prevent cross-border infiltration and other perceived threats to each other's security, a crucial element given the current regional tensions. There is concern that #Iran might target #Jordan and the #Hashemite #Monarchy for destabilization by using #radical #Palestinian #proxies to fuel tensions in the region.

Recent developments in southern Syria highlight a significant shift in the region. Elders from several Druze villages have reportedly approached Israel, seeking integration into the Golan Heights under Israeli governance. This move reflects their desire for stability, security, and better living conditions, especially as Syria continues to face political and military upheaval. Contrary to claims of oppression or targeted harm, this appeal underscores the reality that communities are actively choosing Israel as a safe haven. The Druze, a historically resilient and adaptive group, have once again demonstrated their pragmatism in seeking a better future amidst chaos. It’s essential to address misconceptions. Claims likening Israel’s actions in the Golan Heights to "genocide" ignore the actual dynamics on the ground. These allegations fail to account for the proactive engagement between Israeli authorities and Druze communities, rooted in mutual respect and support. The Druze’s initiative reflects their trust in Israel’s capacity to provide not only security but also the opportunity for prosperity. This moment calls for measured discussions that prioritize truth and regional stability over divisive rhetoric. https://lnkd.in/dZUyubit #MiddleEast #Druze #GolanHeights #RegionalStability

If you are wondering what is happening in Syria, you may like to browse my article based on continuous study of the region over the last couple of years. It covers everything, albeit briefly. It will be in print in The Indian Express tomorrow. Do comment and share extensively. https://lnkd.in/gmR2pRGi

If you are wondering what is happening in Syria, you may like to browse my article based on continuous study of the region over the last couple of years. It covers everything, albeit briefly. It will be in print in The Indian Express tomorrow. Do comment and share extensively. https://lnkd.in/gmR2pRGi

1. Iraq - 55% Shia, 45% Sunni #Saddam Hussein was a Sunni, who came from Tikrit, part of the famous Sunni Triangle. After Saddam Hussein was removed and killed, majority of people in the new government formed with US support were Shia. Iraq and Iran had a two decade war between themselves when Saddam was the ruler of Iraq (basically Sunni and Shia strife). Sadam's army just went back to their homes in Sunni Triangle with all the arms and ammunition after the #US started bombing them after 9/11 in 2002/3. They did put up a stiff resistance to the US forces even after Saddam was captured. 2. ISIS- After the #Shia government took over in Iraq, Sunni groups joined hands with Al-Qaeda and formed ISIS. That is Islamic state of Iraq and Syria. The fighters are predominantly Sunni, most arms they have are of the erstwhile #Saddam army and from Al-#Qaeda funding. Many of the senior leaders of ISIS are former members of Saddam's Baath Party. ISIS is a "spectral hold-over" of the old regime, and that "secular" Baathism has returned to Iraq under the guise of Islamic fundamentalism. ISIS rebranded itself as #HTS. 3. Iran- Shia majority population 90%, does not like ISIS or HTS being majorly Sunni. 4. Syria- Is dominated by Sunni majority and that is why #ISIS got local support here. And ISIS wanted a more radical government here. 5. Turkey- Also predominantly Sunni so the support for Radical groups with ISIS roots. Now take a while and see this entire conflict. Started with the #Sunni #Triangle Baghdad, Ramadi, and Tikrit. #Tikrit is where Saddam was born. Seeds of ISIS, Radicals/ HTS were initially sown here. So those who did not follow the Gulf war 2 would not understand the origin of #ISIS which is now rebranded as #HTS. BTW HTS is still a designated terror organisation by the #UK and many other countries. It will take the modern day media a little while to understand what is really happening here.

My latest piece, just out at MEMRI today. The idea that Lebanon can be constantly rebuilt only for Hezbollah (at Iran's behest) to plunge the country periodically into another war every few years is insane. https://lnkd.in/ej2dhsei

All the world’s struggles, disenfranchisement, and oppression are connected to the same systems of violence. It is vital to recognize the complexities of the frameworks in which we live that perpetuate harm. It is not a bad thing to question those systems—colonialism, capitalism, neoliberalism, etc. In fact, it should be our duty to question the systems in which we operate to improve them and orient them toward care, love ethics, and justice. Take some time to connect the dots, and try to connect them to your business, your place of work. These conversations should’ve happened yesterday. Let’s get cracking.

Key Takeaways in Syria: Same Script, Different Country