BASIC (British American Security Information Council)’s Post

ICYMI: 'Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility' presents key findings and policy recommendations that emerged from dialogues with Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities facilitated by the Nuclear Responsibilities Programme in 2023-2024. Read it here:

ICYMI: 'Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility' presents key findings and policy recommendations that emerged from dialogues with Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities facilitated by the Nuclear Responsibilities Programme in 2023-2024. Read it here:

🌟 Excited to share the latest report co-authored with two great colleagues, Dr. Nicholas J. Wheeler, and Mhairi McClafferty. Titled "Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility," this work stems from Track 1.5/2 dialogues with Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities under the BASIC-ICCS Programme on Nuclear Responsibilities. Diving into critical questions surrounding crisis management mechanisms, we explore the dynamics of the South Asian crisis model outlining key differences with the Cold War paradigm. Our research emphasises the critical role of mutual confidence in crisis management amidst the backdrop of shared nuclear risks in South Asia. We explored several key sources of restraint as well as their inherent fragility, emphasising the need for a resilient crisis prevention and management framework in the region. Our report offers five responsibility-based policy recommendations aimed at reducing nuclear risks in South Asia. Read the full report here https://lnkd.in/dFEC-CPK #SouthAsia #CrisisManagement #NuclearResponsibilities

🆕 This report by Dr Chiara Cervasio, Dr Nicholas J. Wheeler, and Mhairi McClafferty presents the findings and five responsibility-based policy recommendations from dialogues held with Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities facilitated by the Nuclear Responsibilities Programme in 2023-2024. The report argues that, in the India-Pakistan nuclear dyad, there is mutual confidence that the other can be relied upon to show restraint in times of crisis and not push their adversary into a choice between a humiliating defeat and escalating the crisis to the nuclear level. Moreover, as the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis showed, Indian and Pakistani decision makers appear to have become sufficiently confident in the “other’s restraint” that they believe even limited conventional hostilities between them will not challenge this. The shared fear of nuclear war clearly plays a pivotal role here, but there are additional factors that uphold this mutual confidence, including intimate enmity, face-saving narratives, CBMs, and outsourcing escalation control. These sources of restraint, however, are fragile, and there is a risk of complacency leading to miscalculations in future crises, underlining the need for India and Pakistan to develop a robust crisis prevention and management regime to avoid crossing each other’s redlines. The report is part of the BASIC-ICCS project ‘Strengthening Crisis Prevention, Management & De-escalation through a Responsibility-Based Regime to Reduce Nuclear Risks in Southern Asia’, generously funded by the Counter Proliferation and Arms Control Centre (CPACC). ⬇️ Read it here:

Entitled "Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility" and authored by Dr. Chiara Cervasio , Nicholas Wheeler , and Mhairi McClafferty , this excellent report looks at the interaction within the Indo-Pak nuclear dyad and as to what upholds mutual confidence and degrees of restraint. In Pakistan, Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) , under Dr. Rabia Akhtar , spearheaded the project. Please engage with it, to generate a nuanced discourse on a broad range of issues affecting nuclear South Asia. "This report emerges from a series of dialogues with the Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities at the Track 2 / 1.5 level held by BASIC in 2023-2024. The key argument of the report is that, in the India-Pakistan nuclear dyad, there is mutual confidence that the other can be relied upon to show restraint in times of crisis and not push their adversary into a choice between a humiliating defeat and escalating the crisis to the nuclear level. What is more, as the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis showed, Indian and Pakistani decisionmakers appear to have become sufficiently confident in the “other’s restraint” that they believe even limited conventional hostilities between them will not challenge this. The shared fear of nuclear war clearly plays a pivotal role here, but the report identifies four additional sources that uphold this mutual confidence. These are (i) intimate enmity; (ii) face-saving narratives; (iii) confidence-building measures (CBMs); and (iv) the outsourcing of escalation control to third parties. At the same time, the report shows how these four sources of restraint are fragile ones, and that in the context of future challenges to South Asian crisis stability, there is a risk that (over)confidence may slip into complacency. This underlines the urgent and timely need for India and Pakistan to develop a robust crisis prevention and management regime that can avoid the danger that in a future crisis both sides miscalculate the other’s red lines and inadvertently cross them. To this end, the report develops five key responsibility-based policy recommendations" as follows: Policy Recommendation 1: Shared Responsibility to Communicate and Reduce Distrust: The South Asian Standing Communication Secretariat (SASCS) Policy Recommendation 2: Shared Responsibility to Develop a Trusted Track 1 Communication Channel Policy Recommendation 3: Shared Responsibility to Monitor and Update Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs): The CBMs Monitor Policy Recommendation 4: Shared Responsibility to Cultivate Constituencies of Peace with the Next Generation of Experts and Policy-Makers Policy Recommendation 5: Shared Responsibility for the Media not to Promote Violent Language and Nuclear Jingoism. https://lnkd.in/gUX5z7te via @BASIC https://lnkd.in/gzPRTray

Brilliant report on "Crisis Prevention and Management in South Asia: Mutual Confidence, Risk, and Responsibility" authored by Dr. Chiara Cervasio, Prof. Nicholas Wheeler and Mhairi McClafferty. Thank you for the acknowledgement. It was a pleasure for the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) to be the institutional lead in Pakistan for this project with BASIC (British American Security Information Council) on ‘Strengthening Crisis Prevention, Management and De-escalation through a Responsibility-Based Regime to Reduce Nuclear Risks in Southern Asia’ in 2023-2024. Please read the report and engage with it. Share it with your networks. The conversation must go on. Here's the executive summary of this report (pg.6): "This report emerges from a series of dialogues with the Indian and Pakistani nuclear policy communities at the Track 2 / 1.5 level held by BASIC in 2023-2024. The key argument of the report is that, in the India-Pakistan nuclear dyad, there is mutual confidence that the other can be relied upon to show restraint in times of crisis and not push their adversary into a choice between a humiliating defeat and escalating the crisis to the nuclear level. What is more, as the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis showed, Indian and Pakistani decisionmakers appear to have become sufficiently confident in the “other’s restraint” that they believe even limited conventional hostilities between them will not challenge this. The shared fear of nuclear war clearly plays a pivotal role here, but the report identifies four additional sources that uphold this mutual confidence. These are (i) intimate enmity; (ii) face-saving narratives; (iii) confidence-building measures (CBMs); and (iv) the outsourcing of escalation control to third parties. At the same time, the report shows how these four sources of restraint are fragile ones, and that in the context of future challenges to South Asian crisis stability, there is a risk that (over)confidence may slip into complacency. This underlines the urgent and timely need for India and Pakistan to develop a robust crisis prevention and management regime that can avoid the danger that in a future crisis both sides miscalculate the other’s red lines and inadvertently cross them." Five key responsibility-based policy recommendations: 1: Shared Responsibility to Communicate and Reduce Distrust: The South Asian Standing Communication Secretariat (SASCS) 2: Shared Responsibility to Develop a Trusted Track 1 Communication Channel 3: Shared Responsibility to Monitor and Update Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs): The CBMs Monitor 4: Shared Responsibility to Cultivate Constituencies of Peace with the Next Generation of Experts and Policy-Makers 5: Shared Responsibility for the Media not to Promote Violent Language and Nuclear Jingoism https://lnkd.in/expehiS5

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