Breakfast Club Briefings’ Post

Our final BCB of 2023 was an absolute belter! Andrew Wishart, Head of Housing at Capital Economics, one of the world’s leading providers of economic insight, delivered a thought-provoking talk on the UK Economic & Housing Market Outlook. Here are a few of the key issues he covered: 📉 Mild Recession is still coming: The immediate forecast is for a mild recession that is likely underway or looming on the horizon, despite the better-than-predicted UK financial results over the past 12 months. 💡 Core Inflation Dynamics: The UK’s stubbornly high inflation is being caused by restrictions on supply. 📈 BoE Rate Cut Expectations: Due to this underlying economic situation, Capital Economics anticipate the timeline for the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut will be later than expected, around November. However, Andrew emphasized that once initiated, the subsequent reductions are expected to be significant, affecting various sectors. 🏠 Housing Market Resilience: Addressing concerns about housing affordability, Andrew expressed optimism. He suggested that, despite stretched affordability, house prices are close to bottoming out. This insight is crucial for both buyers and sellers navigating the ever-evolving property market. 🚧 Long Road to Recovery: While the stabilisation in house prices is encouraging, Andrew cautioned that a full recovery in mortgage approvals, transaction volumes, and construction activities may not materialise until 2025. The event was incredibly well received, with attendees from: Hyde Housing Ltd Countryside Partnerships London Borough of Waltham Forest Ealing Council (London Borough of Ealing) London Borough of Brent Regal London Apache Capital Avanton Limited London Newcastle Sheen Lane Developments Ltd Ackroyd Lowrie Thanks again to Andrew for taking the time to speak to us all, and look out for 2024 BCB events very soon! #networking #debate #discussion #realestate #property #development #ukhousing #newhomes #regeneration #urbandevelopment #insight #teamwork #opinion #economics #forecasting