The Brazilian Report’s Post

The Largest increase since June 2022 but yet mainstream media are insistent that the market is coming down. I wonder why? 🤔 💸 The recent increase in wholesale energy prices, particularly noticeable today, can be attributed primarily to a significant rise in fuel costs. This surge is largely driven by tighter oil supplies, as major oil-producing nations have restricted output. This reduction in supply has caused gasoline prices to jump by around 20% in August, which has, in turn, led to a 10.5% increase in overall energy prices. This spike in energy costs is reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation at the wholesale level. The PPI rose by 0.7% in August, marking its largest increase since June 2022. The escalation in energy prices is likely to ripple through the economy, affecting various sectors and potentially leading to higher consumer prices down the line. Tax increases are imminent. you decide where your profits are going to end up. tax? supplier risk? Soon you wont have a choice. ACT NOW! #energycontracts #flexibleenergy #wholesaletrading #energysupplier #ukgoverment #parliment

🇧🇷 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀: 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹'𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟱𝗽𝗰 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 | 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to a 14-month high in November, led by gains in food and transportation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to an annual 4.87pc in November from 4.76pc in the previous month, IBGE said. By Maria Frazatto and Lucas Parolin: https://okt.to/YU8gdR #ArgusMedia #ArgusBrazil #inflation #CPI

📈 ON MEXICO’S INFLATION 📉 JULY 2024 August 8, 2024 “ The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) announces the results of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC). Its objective is to measure the price variation of a basket of goods and services representative of the consumption of Mexican households that an average urban consumer acquires. In July 2024, the INPC presented an increase of 1.05% compared to the previous month. With this result, the overall annual inflation stood at 5.57 percent. In the same month of 2023, monthly inflation was 0.48% and annual inflation was 4.79 percent. The underlying price index increased 0.32% at the monthly rate and 4.05% at the annual rate. The non-underlying price index registered an increase of 3.29% monthly and 10.36% per year. Within the underlying index, at a monthly rate, the prices of goods rose 0.12% and those of services, 0.55 percent. Within the non-underlying index, at a monthly rate, the prices of agricultural products increased by 5.00% and those of energy and tariffs authorized by the government, 1.69 percent.” https://lnkd.in/gqTWw96e

🇧🇷 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀: 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹'𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝟱𝗽𝗰 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 | 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 Brazil's headline inflation accelerated to a 14-month high in November, led by gains in food and transportation, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to an annual 4.87pc in November from 4.76pc in the previous month, IBGE said. By Maria Frazatto and Lucas Parolin: https://okt.to/ZQCYVM #ArgusMedia #ArgusBrazil #inflation #CPI

A slightly above-expectation print in Romanian inflation does not impact our year-end forecast of 4.2%. The upside influence stemming from gas prices likely prevented another small positive surprise. That said, internal demand pressures are unlikely to fade too soon, preventing a significant deceleration of inflation through the medium term

US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Nov: 0.4% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%; prevR 0.3%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 3.0% (est 2.6%; prev 2.4%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M): 0.2% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y): 3.4% (est 3.2%; prev 3.1%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy, Trade (M/M): 0.1% (est 0.2%; prev 0.3%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy, Trade (Y/Y): 3.5% (prev 3.5%)

🌐 Monthly Forecasting Update 🌐 Last Friday Ofgem confirmed the Default Tariff Cap for Q1-25 at £1,738 per year for a typical customer, which represents a 1.2% increase from the current cap level. This is the same value as we predicted last week through our weekly price cap forecasting service and only £1 lower than we were forecasting a month ago. Although unwelcome, this increase represents more of a stabilisation in tariff levels compared to the previous rise of around 10% from Q3 to Q4. The Q1-25 tariff cap level is also almost £200 below the level for Q1-24, so this does continue the general decrease in tariffs we have seen year-on-year. Our weekly price cap forecast updates can be found here: https://lnkd.in/eXkTUYkh The increase in the cap level has mostly been driven by increases in Gas and Electricity wholesale markets since late October. Gas markets have risen by around 20% over that period, with a number of factors creating concerns over shorter gas supply relative to demand. These include colder weather in November increasing demand, amid uncertainty over gas supplies due to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and following the American elections. The rising gas markets have driven similar increase in electricity market prices. The impact on the Q1-25 tariff level was mitigated somewhat by the price having mostly indexed by the end of October, but there are larger impacts to later tariff cap levels that are yet to be indexed. It is difficult to predict tariff levels further ahead due to how much wholesale market prices can change, but current market prices suggest a further increase to the cap level in Q2-25 of around £50, before falling back to Q1-25 levels for the rest of 2025. If there is a higher tariff cap level in Q2, there is at least a smaller impact on customer bills due to the lower consumption we typically see in Q2 than Q1 as we move from Winter to Summer. Continued market volatility will change our predictions over the coming weeks and future cap levels could still easily go up or down. This is especially true at the moment due to uncertain geopolitics and unpredictable weather over the coming months. We will keep you updated on all the important changes, so make sure you check out our weekly price cap forecasts and insights on energy bills. #EnergyUpdate #TariffForecast #PriceCap #EnergyMarket

“China’s consumer prices rose for a third straight month in April, while producer prices extended declines, signaling an improvement in domestic demand. The closely watched numbers follow better-than-expected imports data for April, suggesting a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping consumer confidence. Consumer prices edged up 0.3% in April from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Saturday, versus a rise of 0.1% in March. ‘Strip out food and energy prices, and the consumer inflation data suggests a comeback in demand, especially in services,’ said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, grew 0.7% in April, up from 0.6% in March. Overall the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% from the previous month, beating a forecast fall of 0.1% in the poll and reversing a drop of 1% in March.” “Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out, though, and the momentum might prove unsustainable, as official surveys show cooling factory and services activity, while a lengthy housing crisis shows no sign of easing, boosting the case for more policy support. ‘Price hikes by utility companies is another potential driver,’ Xu added. ‘The fiscal strains some local governments are facing affect the subsidies they receive, which could be forcing them to pass the extra cost on to households to make ends meet.’ Officials are grappling with municipal debt of $13 trillion, and the State Council, or cabinet, has told heavily indebted local governments to delay or halt some state-funded infrastructure projects. ‘The prices data suggests that domestic demand is recovering, supply and demand continues to improve and the outlook for domestic demand and price recovery is optimistic,’ said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank. “‘However, consumer prices remain low and the industrial manufacturing sector is still under pressure, reflecting insufficient effective demand and that recovery in the sector is still not sufficiently balanced.’ The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.5% in April from a year earlier, easing from a slide of 2.8% the previous month but extending a 1-1/2-year-long stretch of declines. On Friday, China’s central bank said it would make monetary policy flexible, precise and effective and promote a moderate recovery in consumer prices to consolidate economic recovery. The comments in a quarterly monetary policy report follow remarks in April by the Politburo, a top-decision making body of the ruling Communist Party, that China will use policy tools, such as banks’ reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to prop up growth. Many analysts say China’s economic growth target of about 5% in 2024 will be a challenge to achieve without further policy support.”

just read about interest rates bouncing around and factors influencing their position for later in the year… then I had to fill up my car with petrol… I use premium and paid $2.32lt… which got me thinking… with oil prices bouncing around over the past year from $65 to $120 a barrel why haven’t I seen the same proportional shifts in our pump prices? It would seem that our pumps have become downwardly price inelastic and upwardly price elastic! Given petrol retailers fuel prices, grocery prices and incentive schemes for loyalty etc, and the fact the industry has been infested by our duopoly retailers I’m guessing it’s a “market” ripe for exploitation and rampant price gouging. So my question is, why isn’t government, going apeshit about this disfunctional market? Its embeding significant energy inflation in all aspects of Australias economic production and decreasing the international competitiveness of our manufactured and rural exports whilst harming our local cost of living… My idea is to get Alan Fels to advise the fair average wholesale operational margin for petroleum suppliers in Australia on Friday next week, then on the following Monday have Albo announce that this margin will be fixed to the Dow Jones Commodity Index Crude Oil, and that as the index fluctuates so too will all Australian retail fuel prices… thereby ending the rorting of the Australian public. #JustAnotherRandomThought #SimonForPm https://lnkd.in/gY6EZ8dG