Alētheia Capital’s Post

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau Without giving specific details, TSMC highlights several times that it is negotiating with customers to address rising costs, while continuing to deliver value propositions. We have factored in price hikes into our 2025 estimates, with 5-6% for N3, 1-2% for N4 and double digit for CoWoS. As pricing negotiations are finalized in 2H24, expect more details to surface in the next couple of months. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4f5l4jp For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | The One - Warren Lau The figure illustrates our estimate for TSMC’s revenue by technology nodes and backend service. We believe the back-end division is likely to be one of its fastest growing engines, in addition to the 2nm and 3nm nodes, in years to come. We estimate this division will achieve ~$25bn in FY26E, up from $6.6bn in FY23. We estimate TSMC’s back-end revenue is likely to grow by an additional $2-2.5bn to $8.5-9bn in FY24E. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4eUu61E For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau TSMC held its 2024 outstanding supplier awards today (2nd Dec 2024). We believe the major winners were the vendors to TSMC’s advanced packaging operations. They accounted for 22% of award portfolio in 2024, up from a mere 5% in 2023. This underpins not only the important of these suppliers, but also the critical role of advanced packaging in TSMC’s growth potential (see sector report dated 5 October). Read full story here: https://buff.ly/41h8adQ For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau We preview TSMC’s 3Q results and 4Q outlook due on 17 October. We expect a record 3Q EPS of TWD11.67 ($1.81 ADR), up 44% YoY on the back of record revenue of TWD760bn (USD23.6bn), up 37% YoY and a robust GM of 55%. For 4Q, we expect TSMC to guide for high-single digit sequential revenue growth (or ~30% YoY) i.e., $25-26bn. For GM, we expect a 54-56% range, supported by a higher utilisation rate and ongoing cost saving initiatives, offset by a higher mix of 3nm revenue and to lesser extent an unfavourable USD/TWD. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4h0OMHb For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau TSMC reported 1Q revenue of TWD593bn (or US$18.9bn by our estimate). This implies a 5% fall QoQ but a 13% increase YoY. TSMC had guided $18-18.8bn in revenue while consensus looked for $18.3bn. We estimate EPS will come in at TWD8.57 (TWD8.29 consensus) or US$1.36 (ADR), up single digit YoY – the first positive growth since 2Q23. We expect a 53-54% gross margin (guidance: 52-54%) and an operating margin (42%) slightly above (40-42%). Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4aRtb00 For more information on our #technology #hardware product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Navigating Semiconductor Cycles: Jason Shum, CFA and Leona Yang, CFA uncover how end-market exposure shapes the evaluation of semiconductor companies in a dynamic industry. To learn more about TSCM, please visit our website: https://lnkd.in/gdhpZxB #TSCM #TimesSquare #Semiconductors #Growth #Equities #Investing #InvestmentManagement #AssetManagement

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau We expect TSMC to keep capex intensity in the low-to-mid-30% range, that is, ±$30bn/±$35bn for FY24E/25E. The budget is for infrastructure (supporting domestic and overseas greenfield constructions), 2.5/3D capacity expansion (up multiple folds) and build out of N2/N4/N28 capacity. We estimate TSMC could generate ±$60bn in FCF in FY24E-25E, paving the way for a higher shareholder returns – potentially returning to the 70% payouts of the pre-COVID-19 era! Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4bFx0oV For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | TSMC - Warren Lau Normalizing capex Despite the potential record year in FY24E and an even better year in FY25E, we expect TSMC to continue to be prudent about its capital investment, with capex intensity likely to be kept at low-to-mid-30%s. This is to 1) be better in line with end-market demand as the huge investment cycle during COVID-19 era is likely to be thing of the past; and 2) maximize the cash flow and working capital required to fund the capital return program. In absolute terms, we expect capex to be $28-30bn in FY24E, and al $34-36bn in FY25E. These compared to FY23’s $31bn and FY22’s $37bn. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/4bFx0oV For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | AT&S - George Chang We think AT&S is already shipping to AMD prior to the ramp of the Kulim plant (due to idle capacity at CQ plants), but we also think that general server substrate demand appears to be recovering gradually. Due to a one off profit of €10m booked in BU ME in 1QFY, we estimate 2QFY BU ME EBITDA will only improve slightly QoQ to about €34m. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/3YzKijO For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner

Technology Hardware | Hoya - Warren Lau For the IT business, Hoya's 1Q revenues of ¥77.9bn, up 45% YoY (up 35% on the same FX) significantly beat our estimate of ¥65bn, OP of ¥42.7bn also beat our estimate of ¥34bn. The sharp rebound of HDD, recovery of EUV blanks and favorable FX were the key reasons. HDD substrate growth rates surged +73% YoY (53% local currency) surpassing our estimate of 34% YoY growth, where growth was mainly from 3.5-inch HDD demand. The strong growth is consistent with Seagate and Nitto Denko’s recent results. Read full story here: https://buff.ly/3LN9JXE For more information on our #BestGlobalTechHardwareTeam product, and other Aletheia Capital research, please contact info@aletheia-capital.com #investments #advisory #ideas #fintech #InYourCorner