Propertyology

Those who think about the things which they ‘like’ and ‘dislike’ are distracted from the two most important things regarding investing in #propertymarkets: 1️⃣ the purpose of doing it (financial outcome, as opposed to personal preferences), and 2️⃣ evidence-based Cause and Effect. Scattered across Australia, there are 11.2 million properties in more than 400 townships. The market does not give 2-stuffs what each of the 27-million Aussies likes and dislikes. #financialindependence #realestate #capitalgrowth #economy #housingsupply #propertyology #buyersagency

Propertyology’s New Year’s gift to 27-million Aussies is this insightful 2025 PROPERTY MARKET OUTLOOK REPORT. Readers of this report are spoilt with informative commentary on the Top 25 cities of this 6th largest country in the world. Propertyology’s forecast house value changes for the 2025 calendar year range from a massive 30% #capitalgrowth in one city to a 7% decline in another. And our skilful analysis includes some never-seen-before statistical evidence. Guaranteed to be the most comprehensive national #realestate report you’ve ever read, we hope you gain knowledge and inspiration from our #propertymarket intelligence. https://lnkd.in/gmJYDRci

OPPORTUNITIES It is the 6th largest country in the world. There are more than 400 individual cities and townships. Each of them offers housing and employment opportunities. Things that are very different from one township to another include: 🧑🧑🧒 local #economic profile, 🧑🧑🧒 natural attractions, 🧑🧑🧒 entry price for a standard home, 🧑🧑🧒 local climate, 🧑🧑🧒 levels of #housingsupply, 🧑🧑🧒 annual calendar of major events, 🧑🧑🧒 economic growth initiatives, 🧑🧑🧒 natural #resources across its region, 🧑🧑🧒 local #leadership, 🧑🧑🧒 major projects in the pipeline. Those who see #realestate as their preferred asset class would be wise to (objectively) review the investment credentials of every single one of these 400+ townships. Failure to do so is denial of opportunities and electing to make a significantly diminished decision. The individual township that one personally lives in (either now, in the past or into the future), is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT to the primary objective of the decision. One can’t possibly know what they don’t know. Tap into the skills, knowledge and expertise of those who do know. BORDERLESS INVESTING 👉 https://lnkd.in/gDnXvYbz

PORTFOLIO ACCUMULATION Our journey with this particular client began back in early 2015. The Propertyology team progressively helped our client to methodically accumulate a very diverse portfolio of seven (7) properties. Each location was skilfully selected based on the city’s #economic profile, a wide range of economic growth initiatives, assessment of several #housingsupply metrics and relative #housingaffordability. A separate very structured process was then followed to handpick and negotiate the purchase of a suitable piece of #realestate. Our valued client has been a joy to represent. They are motivated, disciplined, organised and courteous to deal with. With 7 parcels of capital #invested in strategically chosen different cities and in four (4) different states. This is #diversification and #borderless investing at its very best. The legacy of planting so many seeds and allowing *time* for compounding growth to do its thing is that, ten years after they started their journey, this wonderful client now has an ‘orchard’ that will continue to feed them for years to come. CONTACT US 👉 https://lnkd.in/gjeg39D

WHY IS IT SO? Over the 2-financial years ending 2024, Sydney and Melbourne attracted circa 500,000 population growth purely from #overseasmigration. That all-time record high is enough people to fill an entire city bigger than #Canberra, Australia’s 6th largest city. Despite the #populationgrowth, the change in Sydney and Melbourne’s median house price was an extremely mild increase of 8 and 3 percent, respectively. Why is it so? Conversely, the 2-financial years ending 2022 produced population *declines* in #Sydney and #Melbourne, yet their #realestate values boomed by 40 and 20 percent, respectively. Why is it so? #Propertymarket machinations and the cause-and-effect of asset value performance is as complicated as medicine. The starting point for uncomplicating things is to stop listening to people who repeatedly preach about the so-called influence of #population growth and new housing #construction as if those metrics were the heart of SUPPLY & DEMAND. They are not! Genuine EXPERTS have a deep understanding of Cause-and-Effect. Their writings, predictions and explanations across umpteen years will reflect their proven skill. https://lnkd.in/gFac7Mas

QUALITY SERVICE 🧡 Friendly 🧡 Knowledgeable 🧡 Composed 🧡 Organised 🧡 Connected to a skilled network 🧡 Helpful 🧡 Client-best-interests CONTACT US 👉 https://lnkd.in/g_cwG9CB

Over the 2.5 years ending December 2021 and despite a falling population from negative migration, #Melbourne produced a strong 32 percent growth in median house values [but Propertyology urged caution]. The reverse occurred over the subsequent 2.5 years… Melbourne’s #population soared by circa 350,000… yet property values declined. Read that again! 200,000 homes purchased by #Victorian owner-occupiers over the last 2-years ending September 2024 while the population was *booming* is significantly less than the 270,000 homes purchased during the previous 2-years when there was zero population growth. REPORT 👉 https://lnkd.in/gHG-y9h9

6-STAGES While performances will always be very different from city to city and year to year, the #propertymarket of an individual city will always be in one (1) of these six (6) stages. According to many decades of evidence, Stage 1 (‘Crash’) is *exceptionally* rare. Stage 6 (‘Super Boom’) is also very uncommon. It might happen once every 20-years. Stage 5 (‘Boom’) is determined by a #capitalgrowth rate of between 8 and 12 percent over a 12-month period. It is quite common for a city to enjoy 2 or 3 ‘boom’ years during a 10-year block of time. Stage 2 (single digit decline) and Stage 3 (very low to no-growth) typically occur in 3 or 4 years per decade. A ‘normal’ property market is one which produces between 3 percent and 7 percent growth in a year (Stage 4). The official evidence from the last 80-years confirms that, across a block of any 20-year period, the value of a typical house triples (or more). Outstanding! Every location, whether regional or capital city, will experience several years when nothing is happening and it may then feel like an eternity away before its property market will produce anything meaningful. Like most things in life, progress is never linear. But it does occur. The biggest challenge is getting all of the ducks lined up, extracting the ‘digit’ and buying a well-chosen #realestate asset. To everyone who has already done that heavy lifting, one would be wise to remember that, when experiencing a lean period, 80-years is a big critical mass of evidence to justify staying the course.

WARNING Over the last 5-years, every capital city and major regional city has performed better than #Melbourne’s property market. Propertyology first expressed a need for significant concern regarding Melbourne’s #propertymarket fundamentals in mid-2020. A continuation of bad behaviour and poor policies from the state government intensified our concern. In the end, Propertyology felt that the sad state of affairs demanded strong leadership. So, in October 2023, we made the unprecedented decision to boycott the entire state of Victoria. 💸⚠️⛔️ STATUS UPDATE ⛔️⚠️💸 Victoria’s debt increased by more than $20 billion in the past year to be $141 billion in September 2024. The annual interest expense soared 30 percent over the last 12-months and equated to a staggering $1.6 billion in Q3 2024 alone. The annual report into the state’s finances tabled in parliament on 22 November predicted state #debt would pass a whopping $228 billion by 2028, with little sign of a government plan to rein it in. The government incurred an operating loss of $4.2 billion this year, bringing the accumulated losses over the past five years to $48 billion, Auditor-General Andrew Greaves said. Victoria’s ability to pay for basic services such as health and #infrastructure is screwed. ‼️ Over many years, the incompetent state government have produced a dangerous cocktail consisting of reckless #spending, multiple #corruption allegations, deals for mates, a plethora of discouraging property #taxes, Australia’s most toxic rental #legislation, reduced #investment from businesses and rental home suppliers, and an interest bill which is destined to reach $1 billion per month. Melbourne’s property market will remain completely INCAPABLE of being among the better performers until the state’s financial mess and investor confidence is restored. It is impossible to guess when that may be. But the gestation period for such a transformation is long. REPORT 👉 https://lnkd.in/ga9z_wXz

COASTAL versus INLAND Property has always been a highly emotive topic. When it comes to investing in #realestate it is imperative that one has the ability to ‘quarantine’ one’s own biases, preferences and perceptions. Whether one might feel good about potentially living in a particular town, city or property is irrelevant to making truly intelligent #investment decisions. The purpose of #propertyinvestment is a future financial outcome, as opposed to a highly subjective (emotive) assessment. One of many emotive assessments that most people make is the completely nonsensical comparison of COASTAL and INLAND locations. The (indisputable) evidence confirms there is zero connection between coastlines and #capitalgrowth rates. CASE STUDY 👉 https://lnkd.in/gFAbbRMN