Park Lake Advisors

𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱: 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗗𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Markets are opening the second trading day of 2025 with modest optimism, as early market trading indicate slight gains, though these gains are tempered from yesterday's stronger opening indicators. The bond market continues to command attention, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.54% and the 2-year at 4.23%. These rates, while elevated from September's levels, remain relatively stable since the Federal Reserve's December meeting where rates were cut to 4.25-4.50%. Next week's economic calendar takes center stage, with crucial employment data culminating in Friday's non-farm payroll report. These numbers will likely influence the Fed's January meeting decision, though analysts widely expect rates to remain unchanged barring any dramatic shifts in employment figures. To discuss positioning your portfolio for these emerging market dynamics, schedule a consultation at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

𝗛𝗮𝗽𝗽𝘆 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿! Markets are opening 2025 on a positive note, with the major US indexes showing gains. This comes as welcome news after December's weakness, which saw the Dow decline 4.5% and the Russell 2000 drop nearly 8%. Key Morning Developments: 1. Labor Market Strength: Weekly jobless claims came in at 211K, below expectations of 225K and showing continued resilience 2. Tesla News: First-ever yearly decline in deliveries (495,570 vs 504,770 expected) 3. Looking Ahead: Next week brings crucial jobs data that could influence Fed policy decisions The labor market continues to show strength, with continuing claims dropping to 1.844 million - the lowest since September. However, holiday seasonality may be masking true employment trends, with clearer pictures likely emerging in coming weeks. Want to discuss positioning your portfolio for 2025's opportunities? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗘𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰'𝘀 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗮𝘆 U.S. stocks opened higher on the last trading day of 2024, despite recent volatility. The year has been remarkably strong, with the S&P 500 up 24.5%, Nasdaq gaining 32%, and Dow advancing 12.9% YTD, following 2023's impressive performance. Key Year-End Themes: - Fed Policy: December pivot to just two rate cuts in 2025 vs. previously expected four - Market Valuation: Recent pullback viewed by some as a buying opportunity - 2025 Outlook: Most major institutions project S&P 500 targets between 6,400-7,100 Yesterday's pending home sales surprised positively, rising 2.2% in November, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase and reaching the highest level since February 2023. Looking to position your portfolio for 2025? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg Have a Happy and Safe New Year! 🎊

𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗘𝗻𝗱 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵: 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗖𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝘀 Markets are heading into the final trading days of 2024 with increased caution, as pre-market indicators point lower amid growing risk aversion. The much-anticipated Santa Claus rally appears to be losing steam as investors grapple with multiple uncertainties heading into 2025. Key factors weighing on market sentiment include geopolitical tensions, upcoming policy shifts under Trump's administration, and the Fed's interest rate trajectory. Boeing's 4% pre-market decline following a South Korean aircraft incident adds to market pressures. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year note at 4.631%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about monetary policy. Today's focus turns to Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales data, which could provide fresh insights into manufacturing and housing sector health. Last week's trading saw technology and consumer discretionary sectors leading declines, highlighting growing sensitivity to interest rate expectations. Need help navigating these year-end market dynamics? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

Year-End Market Watch: Key Themes for 2025 Markets are trending lower in the final trading days of 2024, as investors digest multiple factors that will shape early 2025. While the Santa Claus rally kicked off this week, trading volumes remain characteristically light as institutional investors step back and retail traders take the lead. Three critical themes are emerging for early 2025: 1. Fourth-quarter earnings starting mid-January will test current market valuations 2. The Fed's projected two rate cuts, with markets not expecting meaningful action before May 3. The incoming Trump administration's economic policies, particularly regarding corporate tax and trade The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.641%, its highest since May, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's rate trajectory. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims reached 1.91 million, the highest level since November 2021, adding another layer to the economic outlook. Looking to position your portfolio for these upcoming changes? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮 𝗥𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗕𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 Markets resume trading after the Christmas holiday with futures pointing lower, despite a strong start to the traditional Santa Claus Rally period. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq posted gains of 1.1%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively on December 24, marking day one of the seven-day period that historically delivers positive returns about 80% of the time. Treasury yields are pressuring markets today, with the 10-year note climbing to 4.635% as investors digest the Fed's projected path of just two rate cuts in 2025. The morning's economic data showed initial jobless claims edging down to 219,000, while continuing claims reached their highest level since November 2021 at 1.91 million. With six days remaining in the Santa Rally window and traditionally thin trading volumes, market participants are watching closely to see if 2024-25 will maintain the historical pattern of 1.3% average gains during this period. Want to discuss your year-end portfolio strategy? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

🎄 Merry Christmas from all of us at Park Lake Advisors! On this joyous morning, we want to extend our warmest holiday wishes to our cherished clients, partners and the entire community. Just as we help guide you toward your financial goals throughout the year, we hope this season guides you toward precious moments with family and friends. May your home be filled with laughter, your heart with peace, and your future with prosperity. Thank you for trusting us with your financial journey in 2024. From our Park Lake Advisors family to yours, have a blessed Christmas Day! 🎅✨

𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗮𝘀 𝗘𝘃𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆: 𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿-𝗘𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 Markets enter the shortened Christmas Eve session with cautious positioning as recent economic data presents a complex picture. November's Durable Goods Orders disappointed at -1.1%, while December's Consumer Confidence cooled to 104.7, suggesting growing consumer wariness about economic conditions heading into 2025. The bond market continues to evolve, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.61% and the 2-year at 4.35%, marking a significant shift from the inverted yield curve that dominated much of the past two years. Trading volumes are predictably light. While major indexes show weekly declines, the Nasdaq's monthly performance remains strong at +4.4%, highlighting selective market optimism as we approach year-end. Looking to discuss your portfolio positioning for 2025? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗺 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗵𝘂𝘁𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗔𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 Markets are entering the final full trading week of 2024 on mixed footing, following Friday's strong performance where the Dow gained 1.18% and broader markets showed similar strength. The weekend's successful resolution of government shutdown concerns has provided some relief, though today's market suggest investors remain cautious. The holiday-shortened week ahead promises quieter trading volumes, with Christmas falling mid-week. However, several key economic indicators warrant attention. Today's Consumer Confidence report, expected to reach 113.0, could mark the highest level since mid-2023 - a potentially significant milestone as we approach the new year and anticipated policy shifts under the incoming administration. Last week's encouraging inflation data continues to influence market sentiment. November's PCE report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, showed welcome moderation with core PCE at 2.8% annually, beating expectations and supporting the Fed's recent policy decisions. Looking ahead, the economic calendar thins out but includes several notable releases: Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales drop Tuesday, followed by Weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Advanced Trade Balance report closing out the week on Friday. These reports, while important, are unlikely to significantly move markets during this traditionally low-volume period. We recognize this time of year presents an excellent opportunity for investors to review their portfolios and consider positioning for 2025. For a more detailed discussion of how these market developments might affect your investment strategy, we welcome you to schedule a consultation through our website - https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg

📊 Market Update: in early market fading, markets are trending lower as we approach the holiday week, with multiple significant developments affecting market sentiment: Key Points: - Government Shutdown Risk: The failed House vote and potential shutdown is weighing heavily on markets. - PCE Data Encouraging: November's PCE report came in cooler than expected at +0.1% monthly (+2.4% yearly), while Core PCE held steady at +2.8% annually. - Treasury Yields: The 10-year yield hit a 7-month high at 4.569%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns despite Fed's recent rate cut. - Economic Resilience: Personal income (+0.3%) and spending (+0.4%) show continued economic strength, though at a moderating pace. 🔍 Looking Ahead: The next Fed meeting will coincide with the presidential transition, and these cooler inflation numbers suggest the Fed may maintain current rates early in 2025. Want to discuss how these developments might affect your investment strategy? Schedule a meeting at https://lnkd.in/gV39bdjg