International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE) / ICAIE Labs

Did you know? By 2050, a combination of water insecurity and climate-driven challenges and conflicts will force 1 BILLION people to migrate, not by choice, but as their only option. Threat convergence links related to violent conflicts, climate change, and water crises are becoming more evident in a dominant trend every year — especially rural-urban migration. With such massive human movements comes significant health challenges and predatory illicit vectors. International Coalition Against Illicit Economies Foundation [ICAIE Foundation]

Alaska continues to be on the frontlines of authoritarian aggression: As interest in Greenland grows and its leaders desiring independence from Denmark, U.S. adversaries are again keen in the Aleutians as strategic gateways into the Arctic Circle in a GPC world. Russian and Chinese incursions into U.S. zones off Alaska have become an increasingly frequent occurrence. The U.S. Army has increased its presence in the state of Alaska following increased military activity from Russia and China in 2024 and around the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Aleutians. With reemerging strategic competition a top priority, the United States should further fortify its defense positions within the Aleutians (via Alaska), part of the Pacific’s third island chain, to deter competitors. Specifically, the United States should reestablish a naval base on Adak Island to support naval deployments that protect approaches to the Arctic and sea lines of communication across the North Pacific. The Aleutian Islands are a chain of both large and small volcanic islands belonging to both the United States and Russia. They extend about 1,200 miles westward from the Alaska Peninsula in the Northern Pacific Ocean. https://lnkd.in/etPJsjXG #GreatPowerCompetition #GPC #grayzones #rregularwarfare #threatintelligence

In an increasingly more complex #threatconvergence world, below is an early assessment of what I believe are the Top 5 Most Destructive Illicit Vectors that will Challenge Markets in 2025: 1. Illegal Revanchist and Revisionist Foreign Policies by Authoritarian Regimes to Build a Multi-Polar World through military power, aggression, and clandestine connivance to reverse historical territorial losses and restore the glory of former empires, and as a security footprint for GPC dominance, muscular assertiveness to claim uncontested sovereignty claims or to exploit natural resources (e.g., Arctic Circle) or strategic gateways (e.g., South China Sea or risky ports/FTZs in Latin America). 2. Irregular warfare: The use of strategic corruption to co-opt markets (e.g., Canada) including through coercive economies, incentivized development assistance (bribery), malign influence, political interference, transnational repression, and the leveraging of criminal proxies and enablers as force multipliers to achieve geo-political goals. 3. Robust Kleptocracies - theft of national assets and public funds for private gain through an abuse of power - as extraordinary threats to national security, foreign policy, poverty alleviation efforts, sustainable development, human rights, and shared global prosperity. In hotspots of insecurity (e.g., the Sahel), military juntas or terrorist regimes, aligned with bad actors and foreign corrupt networks will further imperil democracies, fuel radicalization, violent extremism, state fragility, regional conflicts, and criminalized economies in ungoverned spaces. 4. The rise and power of transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and transformational illicit networks including through the expansion of extra-regional alliances and protected by ideologically neutral authoritarian governments that will pose existential threats to democratic governance, the rule of law, and the long-term strategic interests of open and free markets. New actors, markets, and products will drive both fragmentation among traditional groups and the consolidation of criminalized economies through inter-regional alliances of Latin drug cartels, Eurasian mafias, Asian criminal syndicates, and other criminal networks. Such diversification is having a volatile, profound reordering and restructuring of criminalized markets and relationships among TCOs that is helping to build global ecosystems of criminality and corruption. 5. Money laundering including newer forms of transaction laundering, underground banking, threat finance, and trade-based money laundering (TBML), for example, will continue to underwrite a multitude of lucrative illicit economies, which constitutes about 7- 15% of the world’s economy – or over $15 trillion a year – and going toward criminal networks to expand illicit trade and trafficking in humans, drugs, weapons, counterfeits, illegal tobacco, endangered wildlife, pillaged natural resources and other illicit goods and contraband. 

About 20 years ago, I was asked by the NSC to help negotiate the APEC Leaders' Santiago Commitment on Fighting Corruption which started in discussions in Pucon, Chile in 2004, and was adopted by leaders in Santiago later that year. As part of these diplomatic efforts, I too was successful in getting the Presidents of China and the United States to develop a bilateral High-Level Anticorruption Working Group (ACWG), which helped to strengthen mutual trust and international cooperation between the two countries on fighting corruption, denying safe haven to kleptocrats, asset recovery, and extradition. Through these US-China commitments, we were able to undertake not only some historic workshops and dialogues in Shanghai, Beijing, and many other provinces throughout China that we visited, but in many other APEC economies. Working through these multilateral and bilateral frameworks, I believe that the U.S. and #China did some good things in this arena early in the partnership. But in recent years, it seems from afar that China has further exported strategic corruption and foreign bribery to greater heights, and detriment. We need to re-establish trusted mechanisms again between Washington and Beijing, and with economic partners in #APEC, #G20, and other diplomatic fora that are win-win diplomatically in a more complex world that are anchored on frankness, mutual respect, and accountability. With greater political will, trust, and determination, anti-illicit trade initiatives with committed economies and partners across sectors and communities can help to strengthen cooperation to work on common challenges that attack the corruption that weaken prosperity, security, and fuels illicit trade in illegal fentanyl; fake medicines and medical devices; counterfeit and pirated goods; and the trafficking of drugs, weapons, humans, illegal logging, endangered wildlife, pillaged critical metals and minerals; and numerous other illicit goods and contraband. I remain an eternal optimist that innovative approaches on fighting corruption and crime convergence can make a positive difference when our collective energies are properly harnessed, and leveraged, in tackling an array of economic threats shared by our societies. In 2025, I plan to visit Chile and other Asia Pacific and Latin economies to assess in greater detail the further expansion of cross-border illicit economies, and engage constructively in the coming months, on how best to innovate new possible public-private partnerships to tackle the pernicious ecosystems of criminality and corruption more globally. I look forward to being inspired again as I was 20 years ago in 2025 in my various diplomatic missions in Latin America and Asia Pacific regions, in helping to craft newer dynamic sensible PPPs that are pragmatic, and lead to more sustainable security in a more dangerous world of #threatconvergence. #illicittrade #corruption #moneylaundering #Trump #CCP #XIJinping #maligninfluence #Beijing

Arctic Circle Strategic Competition: Threat Convergence, Natural Resources, Black Markets, Emerging Geopolitical Flashpoints. Competition over access and economic resources in the Arctic, as sea ice recedes, increases the risk of miscalculation, particularly while there is military tension between Russia and the other seven countries with Arctic territory (Arctic Council). China has declared itself to be "a near-Arctic state" in an effort to be relevant in the region and gain a strategic footing in the Arctic, establish new maritime trade routes, and have greater access to natural resources and critical minerals.

With so much talk these days about "buying" Greenland by incoming President-elect Trump and with the Danish Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede emphatically stating that “Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale.” What are some of current geopolitical and strategic competition vectors at play in the Arctic Circle that has Canada, China, Denmark, the EU, Norway, Russia, the EU, NATO, et al, all ginned up over territorial claims and access to critical natural resources and minerals, and other interlocking strategic, economic, environmental, and social concerns in this region? In addition to Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine that saw Finland and Sweden join NATO (#Denmark a founding member), and as the Arctic's polar ice caps melt away due to climate change, #Arctic nations have been eyeing the region’s unclaimed land and ocean territories for expansion, and access to natural resources, establishing new maritime trade routes, and for strengthening strategic military positions including a more assertive China (which is not even in the Arctic Circle) muscling in for economic and strategic military interests. In the coming years, the increasing physical effects of climate change and Great Power Competition (GPC) maneuvers are likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashpoints as states take steps to secure their interests. Military activity is likely to increase as Arctic and non-Arctic states (China, India) and non-state actors seek to protect their investments, exploit new maritime routes, pillage natural resources, create new illicit markets, and gain strategic advantages over rivals. The increased presence of China may further concerns among Arctic states as they perceive a challenge to their respective security and economic interests. Such increased security risks including contested economic and military activities could likely increase #GPC miscalculations. Already, Russia has staked out large claims in the Arctic, and even China has declared itself to be "a near-Arctic state" in an effort to be relevant in the region, despite its northernmost point lying nearly 1,500 kilometers south of the #ArcticCircle. China and Russia are currently aligned in their national interests concerning the Arctic including joint naval exercises in the Bering Sea. Reports indicate that Beijing plans to allocate tens of billions of dollars toward energy initiatives, including investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in the Russian North, as well as infrastructure development and research projects in the Far North. While I don't think we need to buy #Greenland, what is needed to counterbalance a China-Russia multi-polar initiative is a USA national security strategy and joint-combined full spectrum military coordination - maritime, air, space, and ground domains - between NORTHCOM, U.S. Space Force, NORAD, Nordic countries Commands, and #NATO’s Northern Flank. #Trump #China #USA #Canada #Russia #Norway #Finland

If looked through a prism of China illegal trade the recent threats against Canada, BRICS, and Beijing, President-elect Trump's threats against Panama et al begins to appear as an emerging foreign policy blueprint against China's growing illegal trade, malign influence, and strategic corruption (e.g., incentivized economics, Belt and Road Initiative [BRI]). Would encourage the incoming Trump Administration to also look at risky ports and Free Trade Zones (FTZ) around the globe including the booming illicit trade and corruption in Panama's Colon Free Zone (CFZ), one of the biggest hubs of illicit trade in the world. Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA) in the UAE, and the tri-Border Area (TBA) in Paraguay are not far behind on the list of risky ports/FTZs and illegal trade that warrant further foreign policy and national security examination. Perhaps, even the new Chancay Port in Peru. One of the quickest and surest ways for Washington under the incoming Trump Administration to get Beijing’s attention on fentanyl, illegal trade, and money laundering/TBML is to sanction Chinese banks doing business with the Mexican cartels/OC, Chinese money laundering organizations (CMLOs), and illicit traffickers/smugglers, and corrupt enablers including in risky ports, Free Trade Zones, and Hubs of Illicit Trade. #illicittrade #tariffs #Trump #Canada #China #CFZ #Panama #UAE #JebelAli #JAFZA #TBA #Paraguay #Chancay #Peru #FreeTradeZones #FTZ

We will see where things are in the New Year and what 2025 ushers in with the new Administration and geopolitical maneuverings. While admirable to negotiate with strength, threatening the whole world with higher tariffs including in recent weeks, the BRICS, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), Mexico, Panama (price-gouging American ships traversing the canal), and others could be counterproductive in due course, if those that are threatened decide not to bargain at the negotiating table. Nonetheless, I do worry that while using the tariff stick over-bigly may help bring partners and adversaries to elevate their game through the "art of the diplomatic deal-making" -- be it homeland security related, NATO dues, or other national interests, in some cases, it may too have adverse boomerang effects over time. Principally, I do hope that new US administration does not over-reach, over play its hand (leverage), or worse, gets snookered or out-foxed by an alliance of anti-US tariffs friends and foes alike that unite to counterbalance and realize an actual multi-polar world lead by China. Because it seems that with all this tough talk by President-elect Trump right now (and if it continues during his incoming Adminstration), it may very well increase the influence of China and other current authoritarian states to co-opt even more friendlies to gravitate to Beijing's leadership style of incentivized economics (bribery/strategic corruption) and enables it to expand a greater sphere of economic influence around the world at the expense of the United States. Frankly already happening now across the developing world. Alternatively, perhaps President-elect Trump does succeed through offering a "tough medicine" agenda to re-orient and recalibrate trade, monetary, anti-crime cooperation, and other areas of international policy including current war and peace dynamics. But to ensure success will entail smart diplomacy and pragmatic discussions that ultimately protect the national interests and sovereignty alike for the U.S. and our negotiating partners working in good faith. BTW not even sure if Mr. Trump's tariff threats were against the founding members of the BRICS alone; or the whole emerging BRICS Alliance -- 6 new countries announced in August 2023 to join (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates); and parner countries. On 24 October 2024, an additional 13 countries were invited by the BRICS: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam, were invited as observer "partner countries" of the BRICS. https://lnkd.in/eySzzGVW #tariffs #trump #trade #globaltrade #dollar #digitalcurrencies #digitalyuan FINALLY, we are still interested to find all good evidence-based research and data on the impact (direct correlation) of increased tariffs to increased organized crime, illicit trade, and smuggling (e.g., cheaper illicit alternatives).

Fentanyl and criminal networks: the other threats to the Chancay megaport: ICAIE colleagues and senior advisors, Douglas Farah and Pablo Zeballos, interviewed for their pathfinding research on fentanyl and criminal networks: the other threats to the Chancay megaport as covered in the recent ICAIE Chancay (Peru) Report and extensive media coverage including this week in BioBioChile (see below). https://lnkd.in/et6ukfyR #Chancay #ChancayPort #Peru #fentanyl

The Chad and Senegal announcements this week to further sever cooperative defense agreements with France, coming on the heels of military-led governments in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso also kicking out French (and allied) forces who were fighting in support of national and local ones in the face of growing Islamic extremist insurgencies. (AP News) https://lnkd.in/ege6FwYN The fight against violent jihadist-led terrorism, Russia's strategic corruption, and growing influence of criminal networks in Mali and across the Sahel will continue to destabilize sub-Saharan Africa in the coming years, and as France troops and those from other allied forces are asked to leave the region by corrupt military juntas. In the past 10 years, the persistent and growing strength of violent extremist organizations in the Sahel has threatened the humanitarian crisis and spread instability across Africa, posing significant security and financial risks to France, Europe, and the United States. "The continuing collapse of international counterterrorism support, as well as weakening leadership in regional efforts, has created a vacuum in which violent extremism can expand. Organizations including Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), and others have already taken advantage of that vacuum, using countries in the region as platforms to launch indiscriminate attacks on government forces and civilians alike." Other non-state actors, such as the Wagner Group, have also capitalized on the absence of foreign involvement to expand their influence. The possible convergence of security threats, including increased cooperation among terrorist organizations, and between terrorist and criminal organizations, could intensify the danger those groups pose in the region and beyond. (CFR) Transnational organized criminal networks and local gangs in the Sahel are involved in the billion-dollar illicit trade including trafficking in drugs, opioids, weapons, human beings, illegal tobacco, mineral resources, and food. Other activities include kidnapping for ransom, smuggling of migrants, and counterfeiting (e.g., medicines, apparel, footwear, and electronics). Growing anti-French sentiment and aganist Western interventions, have fomented the exploitative conditions for Russia, China, Iran, and other authoritarian external regimes to leverage the ongoing insecurity by terrorist and criminal groups including to pillage gold, critical minerals, and other precious natural resources in the Sahel region. The theat convergence ripple effects from the #Sahel will cross borders and impact the collective national security interests of the U.S. and allies for years to come, much like a tide as it crosses oceans, seeking cracks in the levees, converging with other flows, and flooding anywhere that is not protected.