Eurasia Group

Before our 2025 Top Risks report drops, we’re looking back at #TopRisks2024. We said that three wars – Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and the United States vs itself – would dominate world affairs. Our friends GZERO Media break down how we did ⬇️

What we’re watching via GZERO North: ➡️ Deadly attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas open new year ➡️ Chances of Trudeau staying as PM drop quickly ➡️ Speaker showdown could delay election certification and more ➡️ America mourns former President Jimmy Carter ➡️ Is the US headed for a major port strike? Get the details from GZERO Media:

What we’re watching: ➡️ New Orleans investigation reveals terrorist acted alone ➡️ Authorities try to arrest impeached South Korean president ➡️ Biden blocks Nippon Steel deal ➡️ Syria’s new leaders visit Saudi Arabia ➡️ Thune takes the helm of the Senate ➡️ Will social media bans cuts illegal migration to the UK? ➡️ How the EU and China are prepping for Trump’s tariffs ➡️ MAGA wants to OPT out Get the details from GZERO Media:

#TopRisks2025 launches on Monday – what do you think is going to top the list this year? (Disclaimer: no guarantees any of these make the list)

And then there was one. Ranking #1 on #TopRisks2024: The United States vs. itself. We said that the 2024 election would test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years. The election certainly further polarized the electorate and both Trump and Biden were considered uniquely unfit for office. President Biden dropped out of the race in the summer, with Vice President Harris taking his place as the Democratic candidate. President-elect Trump faced two serious assassination attempts and went on to win the election with a clear enough margin that Democrats accepted the results. https://lnkd.in/eSQ7XR27

What we’re watching: ➡️ Terrorist targets New Orleans in vehicle attack ➡️ AI election interference spurs US sanctions ➡️ South Koreas calls for arrest of former president ➡️ Moscow turns off the tap ➡️ France fades in Africa as Ivory Coast cuts ties Get the details from GZERO Media:

Closing in on the top of the list, coming in at #2 for #TopRisks2024: Middle East on the brink. Last January, we said the region was a tinderbox, and the number of players carrying matches made the risk of escalation exceptionally high. Iran and Israel exchanged direct strikes, followed by the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. The conflict expanded into Lebanon and the fall of Assad in Syria marked a significant loss for the Axis of Resistance. Another risk that was dead-on but could have been more destructive than it turned out to be. https://lnkd.in/erGP93n9

Up next in the #TopRisks2024 reflection: #3: Partitioned Ukraine We said that Ukraine would be de facto partitioned in 2024. Ukraine became increasingly desperate, as evidenced by their invasion in Kursk. Russia’s troops and economy have taken a significant hit and their military strain in Ukraine meant they had little to do to defend longtime ally Assad in Syria. All in all, Ukraine is losing, but Russia isn’t winning. https://lnkd.in/e2WKF8jP

What will be the #1 geopolitical concern for 2025? 📅 January 6 at 12:00 pm ET Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan join GZERO Media’s Evan Solomon and special guests to discuss #TopRisks2025:

Up next on our #TopRisks2024 retrospective: #4 Ungoverned AI In January, we said that gaps in AI governance would become evident in 2024, and that disinformation and proliferation stood out as near-term risks. With four billion people heading to the polls in 2024, disinformation was a top concern. Romania became the first democracy to cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. On the proliferation side, there hasn’t been much impact (yet), but how long that remains the case is another question. https://lnkd.in/e4y9cbxp