What is the best way to make decisions with incomplete information?

Assessing the landscape in which you have to make the decision is crucial. Here are some tools I turn to, and you can use (depending on the situation): SWOT analysis: A SWOT analysis helps you identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities & threats of a situation. It can help you understand the internal & external factors that affect your decision Decision tree: A decision tree is a diagram that shows a sequence of choices and their possible outcomes. It can help you visualize the alternatives, risks & consequences of each decision Decision matrix: A decision matrix is a table that helps you compare and rank multiple options based on different criteria. It can help you weigh the pros and cons of each option and assign scores

A tomada de decisão em um ambiente complexo e de mudanças constantes, onde dados, informações e análises transformadas em Inteligência, e portanto em ações, exige que cada vez mais haja conversas com os clientes e consumidores, além de especialistas, cientistas, entre outros profissionais que possam nos falar sobre diferentes visões, da sociedade, do consumo, do mercado, que somados às técnicas de Inteligência Competitiva, serão decisivas para aumentar a competitividade da empresa.

As per my point of view, first and foremost, we must always have in mind that the information we have is imcomplete, ALWAYS. Today`s world is way too complex to allow us to have the complete set of data that would allow us to have the perfect amount of data in order to get the consummate answer. After you have this clear, then you start to work with the best possible scneario, and focus on what you need to answer, and in some cases, as ackward as it may seems, there is no better way to solve the problem than to rethink the answer you had in first place, considering what is REALLY the most important issue you need to solve.

A few tips on effectively seeking feedback & advice before making a decision: Define your decision problem clearly: Before you seek feedback and advice, you should have a clear idea of what decision you are trying to make, why it is important, and what criteria you will use to evaluate the options Choose the right sources of feedback and advice: You should seek feedback and advice from people who have relevant expertise, experience, or perspective on the problem Ask open-ended and specific questions: You should ask questions that invite honest and constructive feedback and advice, rather than leading or confirming questions Evaluate and integrate the feedback and advice. You should not blindly accept or reject the feedback and advice

There is an old saying in my country that says "two brains think better than one", and there can be no better phrase when you face a complex situation for which you have not as much info as you wanted to. Talking with other people (sometimes not even about the principal matter in question) is a very useful way to make new brain connections, get another perspectives, get access to different point of views that enrich your own way to look at the problem, and balance what you have and what you though you needed to. Talking to people is getting to add realities, expand possibilities and definetly a way to solve problems in a much more effective way.

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that can help you make decisions quickly & efficiently, but they can also lead to errors or distortions in your judgment Exmpl: - The availability heuristic can make you overestimate the likelihood of events that are more salient or memorable - The confirmation bias can make you seek or interpret information that supports your existing beliefs Use heuristics that are appropriate for the context and the goal of your decision. They are not one-size-fits-all solutions; they may work well in some situations but not in others Combine heuristics with your intuition, which is your gut feeling or instinct based on your experience and knowledge. It can help you generate insights & alternatives that heuristics don't

To make a provisional decision based on the best available information, feedback, and intuition, you should: - Gather and analyze the relevant information from reliable sources. - Seek and evaluate the constructive feedback and advice from diverse perspectives. - Trust and balance your intuition with rational analysis. - Choose the option that best aligns with your goals, values, and criteria. - Communicate your decision clearly and confidently to yourself and others. - Monitor and review your decision regularly and objectively. - Change or revise your decision if necessary and justified.

Testing and evaluating your decision before implementing it fully can help you: - You can check whether the assumptions and hypotheses that underlie your decision are valid and accurate. You can also identify any gaps or errors in your information or analysis that may affect your decision. - You can reduce the risks and uncertainties that are inherent in any decision. You can also anticipate and mitigate any potential problems that may arise during the implementation - Optimize results and outcomes. By testing and evaluating your decision, you can optimize the results and outcomes that you want to achieve with your decision