You're faced with uncertainty and limited information in decision-making. How do you navigate the unknown?

Sometimes you can find yourself in the situation where decision need to be made now, but you don't have a comprehensive information about the problem. It is not a pleasant situation, I know, however, you still need to make a decision. Don't be afraid. You need to evaluate the fallout of your decision and how it can affect your project, team or career. You need to create a priority list of the problems and required level of information that you need to make a call. Let's see: if there is a delivery of a new cooler, then you don't need all the information from colleagues on where to put it. You just do it. However, for more complex decisions, such a call can not be made without deeper preparation.

The key is to stay calm and gather as much relevant information as you can. Make a list of your options and think about the possible outcomes for each one. Trust your instincts and experience to guide you. Remember, it's okay not to have all the answers right away. Take things step by step, and make the best decision you can with the information you have.

Risk assessment acts as your guide when you're facing uncertainty. Begin by recognizing potential risks, what information you have & what is still unknown. Consider possible outcomes of each choice even with limited data, thinking through best & worst-case scenarios. It's important to constantly reassess your decisions as new information becomes available. Engaging others for their insights, reducing uncertainty by managing risks, documenting outcomes of your choices, & staying flexible with your approach ensures you remain adaptable. By breaking down complex situations into smaller, more manageable parts, you can continuously refine your understanding & further reduce uncertainty, helping you make smarter, more calculated decisions.

Here is a sample example on how to assess risks: In 2018, a logistics company faced uncertainty when a major client hinted at potential changes in their shipping needs. The company conducted a thorough risk assessment, identifying potential impacts on their operations, finances, and customer relationships. They created contingency plans for various scenarios, ensuring they could adapt quickly if the client's needs changed. This proactive risk assessment helped them minimize disruptions when the client eventually altered their shipping requirements.

A freight broker was unsure whether to expand services to a new international market. To navigate this uncertainty, they gathered intel by conducting market research, analyzing competitor strategies, and consulting with industry experts. They also gathered feedback from potential clients in the target market. This comprehensive information-gathering process provided valuable insights, helping the broker make an informed decision to enter the new market successfully.

-Understand possible risks impacts -Gather possible information from trusted sources -Evaluate the options based on the situations and info -Arrive at best possible solution to handle the situation -Work on a contingency plan just incase the proposed solution doesn't yield results Quoting a real life example. During Covid the fulfillment centers were facing issues on account of govt restrictions, not sure, if the facility can operate in full potential. Required permissions were obtained from the local authorities to keep the facility operational to cater demands. We had a back up plan to route the orders to another facility incase of issues, this still had a potential risks of cancellations and delays. H'ever this ensured fewer impacts

A seasoned supply chain manager faced a sudden, unexpected disruption when a key supplier went out of business. Despite limited information and time pressure, the manager trusted their instincts based on years of experience. They quickly identified an alternative supplier and initiated negotiations, ensuring minimal impact on the production line. Their instincts, honed through experience, proved correct, and the company maintained continuity in its supply chain.

◾Embrace Scenario Planning: To further enhance your hypothesis-making process, embrace scenario planning. This technique involves creating detailed narratives about possible future states based on different variables and assumptions. By envisioning multiple scenarios, you can better anticipate potential challenges and opportunities. Scenario planning helps you identify key factors that could impact your decisions and prepares you to respond effectively to various outcomes. It transforms uncertainty into a strategic tool, enabling you to navigate the unknown with greater confidence and foresight.

A logistics startup wanted to optimize delivery routes but had limited data on traffic patterns. They made hypotheses based on observed trends and historical data, such as "Traffic is heavier on main roads during peak hours." They then tested these hypotheses by implementing route changes on a small scale and collecting data on delivery times and fuel consumption. This scientific approach allowed them to refine their strategies, eventually improving overall efficiency.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a supply chain manager had to navigate rapidly changing regulations and disruptions. They stayed adaptable by continuously monitoring the situation, updating plans in real-time, and communicating changes to all stakeholders. This flexibility enabled the company to pivot quickly, such as switching to alternative suppliers or adjusting inventory levels, ensuring they could continue operations despite the uncertainty.

Navigating uncertainty, limited information in decision-making requires a balanced approach of breaking down the complex real life problem, relying on past experiences, seeking diverse input from teams & experts. It's essential to remain flexible and open to changing strategies as new information arises, while also testing assumptions & exploring creative solutions. By developing risk contingency plans, prioritizing key future unknowns, using decision-making tools like decision trees & matrices, you can manage risks effectively. Keeping communication transparent, focusing on both short-term actions, long-term goals, promoting a culture of resilience & adaptability allows you to move forward with confidence, even in the face of ambiguity.

A logistics firm implemented a new software system to improve tracking and delivery accuracy. To navigate the unknowns of the new system, they set up regular reflection meetings to review performance, discuss challenges, and gather feedback from users. This iterative process allowed them to identify issues early, make necessary adjustments, and optimize the system's performance over time. Regular reflection ensured continuous improvement and successful implementation.