What are the key elements and steps of a competitive intelligence scenario planning process?

Identify the Pareto Principle (80/20) or Price Law impact of effort to outcome. Use the competitive intelligence primarily to support & defend the most critical efforts that lead to the most valuable outcomes desired. Planning for every scenario will lead to failure to execute or failure to maintain data quality control. Plan to focus first on the most important 5% effort, followed by the next 5%, et al.

Pensar os principais elementos e etapas de um processo de planejamento de cenários de inteligência competitiva, é fundamental coletar informações sobre o macroambiente. Ou seja, quais os impactos no setor que a empresa atua, que precisam ser observados por todas as empresas, e quais os impactos específicos para organização. Isso quer dizer uma análise sobre os fatores externos como os demográficos, econômicos, meio-ambiente, tecnológicos, político-legais e socioculturais, pensando 6, 18 e 36 meses.

In my experience with small medium businesses who often don't have a dedicated CI team, before getting started it's critical to identify team members from Sales, Marketing, Business and Product who will share the planning responsibility. If the CI scenario planning activity is not shared across all teams in the business, it will be incomplete most of the times or you'll end up with multiple redundant plannings across multiple teams.

Defining the scope and purpose of CI scenario planning is essential, much like setting a journey's destination and route. Clear scope prevents data overload, while a defined purpose ensures focus and strategic decision-making. For instance, if expanding into a new market, the planning should assess the competitive landscape to identify challenges, opportunities, and develop strategies for risk mitigation and success.

Identifying key factors and uncertainties is crucial in CI scenario planning. These can be external, like technological changes, or internal, such as competitor strategies. Three approaches to identify these factors include PESTLE analysis for industry impact, Porter's Five Forces for market analysis, and competitor analysis for understanding rival strategies. This helps in developing scenarios for plausible futures.

After identifying key factors and uncertainties, develop a scenario framework with narratives. Create plausible stories depicting the future based on different factor combinations. For instance, consider three scenarios: an optimistic one with rapid tech growth, a pessimistic one with economic recession, and a baseline one with moderate growth. Each scenario should include detailed events, trends, and competitor actions.

For scenarios to effectively inform strategic decision-making, they must be validated and communicated well. Validation involves consulting with experts to ensure plausibility, while communication requires presenting scenarios clearly to stakeholders. Effective methods include scenario reports, presentations, and workshops.

Case study: Royal Dutch Shell has been a leader in scenario planning since the 1970s, using it to navigate events like the 1973 oil crisis and the Soviet Union's collapse. The process involves identifying key uncertainties, developing scenarios, testing strategies, and integrating insights into decision-making. This approach highlights the value of scenario planning in handling uncertainty and achieving success. A comprehensive process offers insights, informs strategy, and boosts competitive advantage in a dynamic business environment.