How do you decide which routes to fly?

1 Demand and supply

The first factor is the demand and supply of the market. You need to analyze the potential passenger traffic, the seasonality, the price sensitivity, and the preferences of your target segments. You also need to consider the availability and cost of slots, gates, and facilities at the airports. You want to match your capacity and frequency to the demand and supply, and avoid oversupplying or undersupplying the market.

2 Costs and revenues

The second factor is the costs and revenues of the route. You need to estimate the operating costs, such as fuel, crew, maintenance, and landing fees, and the non-operating costs, such as marketing, distribution, and taxes. You also need to project the revenues, based on the fares, the load factor, the ancillary services, and the loyalty programs. You want to maximize your revenue per available seat kilometer (RASK) and minimize your cost per available seat kilometer (CASK), and achieve a positive contribution margin.

3 Competition and differentiation

The third factor is the competition and differentiation of the route. You need to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of your competitors, such as their network, their product, their service, and their reputation. You also need to identify your unique selling proposition (USP), such as your brand, your value, your innovation, and your customer experience. You want to create a competitive advantage and a loyal customer base, and avoid price wars and commoditization.

4 Strategy and goals

The fourth factor is the strategy and goals of the airline. You need to align your route selection with your mission, vision, and values, as well as your business model, your target market, and your growth plan. You also need to balance your short-term and long-term objectives, such as profitability, market share, customer satisfaction, and sustainability. You want to support your strategic direction and your core competencies, and adapt to the changing environment and customer needs.

5 Risks and opportunities

The fifth factor is the risks and opportunities of the route. You need to assess the potential threats and uncertainties, such as political instability, economic downturn, natural disasters, health crises, and regulatory changes. You also need to explore the possible scenarios and alternatives, such as new markets, new partnerships, new technologies, and new trends. You want to mitigate your risks and exploit your opportunities, and be prepared for contingencies and changes.

6 Data and analysis

The sixth factor is the data and analysis of the route. You need to collect and process relevant and reliable data, such as historical performance, market research, customer feedback, and industry benchmarks. You also need to apply appropriate and robust analysis tools, such as network optimization, route profitability, demand forecasting, and scenario planning. You want to base your decisions on facts and insights, and monitor and evaluate your results and actions.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?