How can you compare scenarios for complex systems?

1 Define the problem

The first step is to define the problem that you want to solve or the question that you want to answer. You need to specify the scope, boundaries, and objectives of the system and the scenarios that you want to compare. You also need to identify the relevant stakeholders, criteria, and indicators that will help you measure and compare the outcomes of the scenarios.

2 Model the system

The next step is to model the system and the scenarios using a suitable representation that captures the essential features and dynamics of the system. You can use different types of models, such as mathematical, graphical, conceptual, or computational models, depending on the complexity and purpose of the system. You should also validate and verify your models to ensure that they are accurate and reliable.

3 Simulate the scenarios

The third step is to simulate the scenarios using a software tool or a platform that can run your models and generate outputs. You can use different types of simulation techniques, such as discrete-event simulation, agent-based simulation, system dynamics simulation, or Monte Carlo simulation, depending on the nature and behavior of the system. You should also test and calibrate your simulations to ensure that they are realistic and consistent.

4 Analyze the results

The fourth step is to analyze the results of the simulations using various methods and tools to extract meaningful information and insights. You can use different types of analysis techniques, such as descriptive analysis, exploratory analysis, inferential analysis, or predictive analysis, depending on the objectives and questions of the problem. You should also use appropriate visualization techniques, such as graphs, charts, maps, or dashboards, to present and communicate your results.

5 Evaluate the scenarios

The fifth step is to evaluate the scenarios using various methods and tools to compare and rank them according to the criteria and indicators that you defined in the first step. You can use different types of evaluation techniques, such as multi-criteria decision analysis, cost-benefit analysis, sensitivity analysis, or scenario analysis, depending on the preferences and values of the stakeholders. You should also consider the uncertainties and trade-offs that may affect the outcomes of the scenarios.

6 Iterate and improve

The final step is to iterate and improve your process and your scenarios based on the feedback and learning that you obtained from the previous steps. You can use different types of improvement techniques, such as optimization, design of experiments, or lean six sigma, depending on the opportunities and challenges that you identified in the system. You should also monitor and update your scenarios as the system and the environment change over time.

7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?